Oregon State vs North Texas: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | November 25, 2024

Sometimes, the best way to start the week is by embracing a good, old-fashioned defensive battle. Tonight’s matchup between Oregon State and North Texas features two of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball, each bringing elite defensive chops to the table. If you’re ready for a grind-it-out game where points are hard to come by, this one’s for you.

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Oregon State vs North Texas Odds

Can Oregon State bounce back after a tough loss to Oregon?

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Spread:

Oregon State: +6 (-106)

North Texas: -6 (-114)

Total:

Over: 126 (-110)

Under: 126 (-110)

Moneyline:

Oregon State: +225

North Texas: -265

Oregon State vs North Texas Prediction

Nothing like kicking off the week with two of the slowest teams in the country squaring off and backing the under. If you’re not a fan of slow tempos and lockdown defenses, this game isn’t for you. Oregon State and North Texas are both bottom 20 in tempo—Oregon State ranks 344th, while North Texas is the third-slowest team in the nation.

Mean Green D

This will be North Texas’ second true home game against a Division I opponent. They haven’t hosted one since their season opener against Evansville. Since then, their unders are 1-0-1. The Mean Green have been tested early, facing two top-100 teams (McNeese and Minnesota) outside of their two non-Division I matchups. Their defense is elite, ranking 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They excel at forcing turnovers and defending the perimeter. Their one major flaw? Sending teams to the line—they’re ranked 5th worst in free throw rate. Oddly enough, teams haven’t been capitalizing, with North Texas’ “free throw defense” ranked 74th according to Bart Torvik—a stat that feels meaningless but might matter here.

Lockdown Beavers

On the other side, Oregon State is hitting the road for the first time this season, fresh off a tough rivalry loss to Oregon on Thursday. They’ll be looking for a bounce-back in this spot. The Beavers have a stellar defense, ranking 38th in effective field goal percentage allowed, per Bart Torvik. They do everything well—rebound, block shots, avoid fouls, and defend both the paint and perimeter, ranking in the top 70 in every key category. Their methodical, grinding style has been suffocating, holding Division I opponents to under 60 points in three of their four games.

Projection sites like Haslametrics, Bart Torvik, and KenPom all peg this game to end around 127 points—but projections don’t account for the Beavers playing their first road game or carrying a chip on their shoulder after the Oregon loss. Regardless, this one has “defensive slugfest” written all over it. Combined, these two teams are 4-3-1 to the under this season. If their defenses show up as expected, keeping both squads under 65 points feels realistic.

Land down under.