Oklahoma vs #2 Florida: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | February 18, 2025

Oklahoma heads to Florida for an SEC showdown, but the Sooners have plenty of concerns to address. Their struggling offense and poor road record make this a challenging matchup, especially against a Florida defense that excels in key areas. It is difficult to envision Oklahoma having much success in this game, particularly away from home.

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Oklahoma vs #2 Florida Odds

Will Oklahoma’s offense finally step up on the road tonight against Florida?

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Spread

Oklahoma: +14 (-116)

Florida: -14 (-104)

Total

Over: 156.5 (-122)

Under: 156.5 (+102)

Oklahoma vs #2 Florida Best Bet

A good old-fashioned SEC matchup that your father reminisces about daily—Oklahoma vs Florida. No need to look at the spread or game total here, we are diving straight into what makes the most sense in this matchup, at least in my dimly lit mind. Oklahoma’s team total under has been calling to me all morning.

Why? Do I want to trust Florida to cover another 14-point spread? Do I trust Oklahoma to stay within those 14 points? The answer is no to both. One thing I do trust, however, is Florida’s defense, and Oklahoma’s putrid offense. Let’s break down the numbers.

So far this season, playing on the road has been Oklahoma’s kryptonite, with a 1-5 record in true road matchups. In those six games, Oklahoma has scored over 71 points only once, which came on January 4th at Alabama, a game played at lightning speed. Florida is allowing an average of 61.2 points per game at home this season, while Oklahoma is averaging 67 points in true road games.

Oklahoma’s offense is dreadful, ranking 319th in effective field goal percentage, 331st in offensive rebounding, 10th worst in defensive rebounding, 275th in three-point percentage, and 304th in two-point offense. To top it all off, they are 7th in offensive block percentage. Simply put, Oklahoma’s offense is atrocious away from Norman.

That offense now faces a Florida defense that has the second-best effective field goal percentage defense, excelling at defending both the perimeter and the inside, ranked top 15 in both categories. On top of that, Florida is 60th in turnover defense, which will feast on Oklahoma’s 224th-ranked turnover offense. To make matters worse for Oklahoma, Florida is 53rd in defensive block percentage.

I will continue to fade this Oklahoma squad until they prove me wrong, but the numbers speak for themselves. If they are away from Norman, fade them into oblivion. I do not think they hit the 70-point mark today. Give me that under!