North Texas vs. TCU: Game Predictions and Analysis

College basketball rolls into another packed afternoon and this matchup between North Texas and TCU has pulled me in right away. Neutral site games can offer a clearer look at who is built to handle pressure, and this one feels especially telling. North Texas enters with a polished record but very little substance behind it, while TCU arrives after a frustrating overtime loss that should sharpen their focus. With both teams seeking a statement, this game offers a perfect chance to measure strength, resilience and authenticity as the season continues to settle in. This spot could define their direction forward.

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North Texas vs. TCU Odds

Can TCU bounce back and beat North Texas by double digits?

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Spread

North Texas: +9.5 (-110)

TCU: -9.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 136 (-111)

Under: 136 (-109)

Moneyline

North Texas: +350

TCU: -450

North Texas vs. TCU Best Bet

Another neutral site game that has grabbed my attention this afternoon, North Texas takes on TCU. The Mean Green have been cruising, winning 4 straight games. However, they are barely scraping by in these wins against some of the country’s most mediocre teams. During that span, the Mean Green are winning by an average of 7.7 points and they are 1-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, their best opponent was ranked 247, per Bart Torvik. On the other side, TCU is coming off a brutal loss to Notre Dame on Friday. The Horned Frogs were a seven-point favorite and lost by two in overtime. This matchup feels like an all time get right spot for the Horned Frogs.

No Ross, No Trust

It saddens me to admit that without Ross Hodge, my once beloved North Texas Mean Green are not as powerful as they once were. North Texas enters this matchup playing the 11th easiest schedule to this point. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have endured the 119th toughest. Haslametrics gives TCU a clear advantage in momentum, average season rank and away/home court. TCU has played away from home only two times this season, where they took down Florida and Wisconsin. This Horned Frogs team has been battling early. They are coming off a tough overtime loss against Notre Dame this past Friday. I would argue they were due for regression after beating UMKC, Florida and Wisconsin all in a weeks span.

TCU has been one of the better defensive teams in the country, ranked 32nd overall by Bart Torvik. They are one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, ranked 11th. They do not send teams to the line, they lock down the paint and they block a ton of shots. Offensively, they are still inside the top 100. The Frogs protect the ball well enough and are a solid offensive unit.

Not So Mean Green

North Texas on the other hand, a program that used to be a defensive force and one of the more efficient offenses in the American, sits 86th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, they foul a ton, ranked 349th in free throw rate defense. The Mean Green struggle on the glass, ranking 214th in defensive rebounding. Offensively, they are 277th in two point offense, 267th in turnover rate and 184th in free throw rate. They are not as effective or efficient as they once were under Ross Hodge.

Again, this is while playing nobody. North Texas has played only one team inside the top 100, which was Saint Marys, and they lost 80 to 49. The last time TCU played a team inside the top 200 was Lamar, where they won 78 to 65 on November 10.

This feels like a great spot for the Horned Frogs to get right after losing to a Notre Dame team that had no business beating them in overtime. With this game only minutes from campus, the Frogs have had enough time to rest and regroup against a team that has not been tested once this season. Plus after this game, TCU has a full week off, as their next matchup is on the 15th against Incarnate Word. Give me TCU to win by double digits!