North Texas vs. Saint Mary's: Key Matchup Insights

I have been staring at this college basketball slate all morning, and the game that keeps pulling me in is one that most people will roll their eyes at. North Texas and Saint Mary’s might not have the national shine, but they are two of my absolute favorite mid-major programs in the country. There is something about the way both teams play that grabs me every single time. It is tough, it is structured, and it is all about execution on both ends of the floor. This matchup is everything I love about November basketball, and it sets up perfectly for what I want to attack.

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2024-25 Season: -14.5 Units

Last 7 Days: 8-6 (+1.52 Units)

2025-26 Season: 14-12 (+1.8 Units)

North Texas vs. Saint Mary’s Odds

Will covering the 15-point spread be too much for the Gaels?

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Spread

North Texas: +15 (-105)

Saint Mary’s: -15 (-115)

Total

Over: 130 (-110)

Under: 130 (-110)

Moneyline

North Texas: +836

Saint Mary’s: -1400

North Texas vs. Saint Mary’s Best Bet

This might be my favorite game on todays college basketball slate, and plenty of people will strongly disagree. North Texas and Saint Mary’s are two of my favorite mid major programs in the country. Why is that the case? We will get to it.

The Mean Green come into tonight off a tough loss to the Oregon State Beavers just two days ago. North Texas controlled the entire game with a 98% win expectancy, leading 64 to 57 with 1 minute and 52 seconds to play. Oregon State stormed back and won at the line. Total heartbreak for the Mean Green, and a brutal spot to turn around this quickly.

Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, is undefeated to start the season after beating and covering against St Thomas, Chattanooga and Ohio. Tonight the Gaels finally get their first real test, as the Mean Green are the first team inside the top 100 that they have faced. It will be interesting to see if Saint Mary’s can cover the 15-point spread against a team that plays the exact same style of basketball.

Defense & Tempo

The reason I love these two programs is exactly why the under is my play in this matchup. Both teams play as slow as the feet shufflers at the home. On top of their bottom 20 pace, both teams play suffocating defense. Each ranks inside the top 45 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.

I grabbed 130.5 on Thursday afternoon and I am surprised it has not moved. The advanced metrics project this game closer to 128. I would not be surprised if this one finishes in the 115 to 120 range. These defenses are that strong, and both teams play at a pace where every point will be a premium.

Through three games, the Gaels are allowing only 61.3 points per game. The Mean Green are giving up 58.75 per game. With North Texas playing on Wednesday, they should be tired and worn down. Saint Mary’s should suffocate their offense and make every possession a grind. It is difficult for me to see this game landing over 130 unless Saint Mary’s completely runs away with it, and even then it will be tough with these two teams playing slow and defending at this level.