NCAA Basketball Sweet 16: Odds, Insights and Early Leans

The Sweet 16 is finally set, and although we didn’t have very many upsets in the first couple of rounds, surely that means we are in for some fantastic matchup in this later stages. The games don’t return until Thursday, but it’s never too early to look at the odds that are out and see if we have any early leans in the games! Let’s get to it.

NCAA Basketball Sweet 16 Preview

#6 BYU vs #2 Alabama: Sweet 16 Predictions

East Region Semifinal

• BYU +5.5 (-110)
• Alabama -5.5 (-110)
• Over/Under 175.5

This total may end up being the highest in tournament history, and for good reason. Both of these teams run crazy fast and primarily focus on the offensive side of the ball. I certainly wouldn’t count out the Cougars with their shooting stroke, and they could be a live dog this weekend.

#4 Maryland vs #1 Florida: Sweet 16 Predictions

West Region Semifinal

• Maryland +6.5 (-107)
• Florida -6.5 (-113)
• Over/Under 156.5

After narrowly escaping Colorado State, the Terps hit a buzzer beater to move on. The Gators had some trouble against UConn in their Round of 32 matchup, but ended up pulling out a win towards the end. Now we will see the Crab 5 face one of the toughest teams on both sides of the basketball floor. My guy has the Gators moving on but I’m not sure that they’ll cover.

#4 Arizona vs #1 Duke: Sweet 16 Predictions

East Region Semifinal

• Arizona +9 (-110)
• Duke -9 (-110)
• Over/Under 154

These two teams already met in Tucson this season where the Blue Devils manhandled the Wildcats on the road. They held Arizona to just 55 points, only needing 69 to secure the victory. Can the Wildcats play with some extra motivation in this game and find a way to take down the top seeded Blue Devils?

#10 Arkansas vs #3 Texas Tech Predictions

West Region Semifinal

• Arkansas +5.5 (-105)
• Texas Tech -5.5 (-115)
• Over/Under 147.5

This year’s Cinderella team is in the Sweet 16 and faces a Big 12 foe. Coach Cal and the Razorbacks have strung together a couple of tournament wins and find themselves with a chance at the Elite Eight on the line. Texas Tech has had an “easier” path after beating #14 Lipscomb and #11 Drake, they now get to avoid the two seeded Johnnies after the Hogs upset them last round.

I heavily lean with the Red Raiders as I think Arkansas’ magic has to run out soon, but I think I will be targeting the over in this matchup.

#6 Ole Miss vs #2 Michigan State: Sweet 16 Predictions

South Region Semifinal

• Ole Miss +3.5 (-115)
• Michigan State -3.5 (-105)
• Over/Under 144

January, February, Izzo, April. Do I need to say more?

It’s Tom Izzo and the Spartans month, they are playing incredibly well, and I think Ole Miss gets a bit of a wake up call against a defensive caliber team that they haven’t seen in a while. It would take major guts for anyone to fade Michigan State in this spot in my eyes.

#3 Kentucky vs #2 Tennessee: Sweet 16 Predictions

Midwest Region Semifinal

• Kentucky +4.5 (-115)
• Tennessee -4.5 (-105)
• Over/Under 145

Originally I had either Illinois or Kentucky taking down the Vols in this Sweet 16 matchup. However, I am not convinced anymore. Tennessee’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, which makes the #1 defense in the country that much scarier. If the Vols are knocking down their shots, they can keep up with a speedy Kentucky team.

This is also a double revenge spot for Tennessee who lost to the Wildcats twice this year. The Vols need to control the pace of the game and slow things down in order to have a shot.

#5 Michigan vs #1 Auburn: Sweet 16 Predictions

South Region Semifinal

• Michigan +8.5 (-106)
• Auburn -8.5 (-114)
• Over/Under 153.5

Let me be the first to tell you, Michigan pulls off this upset. Dusty May has recent tournament success, his team is red hot right now, and they are riding that momentum into this matchup. The Wolverines are a matchup nightmare for the Tigers, who will not only have to get Johni Broome the ball to score, but will also have to defend two seven footers who are on the court constantly.

Danny Wolf will have himself a day depending on having a smaller guard on him, or handling Broome down low, who is simply two small compared to Michigan’s two big boys. Give me the Wolverines to meet up with Sparty in the Elite Eight.

#4 Purdue vs #1 Houston: Sweet 16 Predictions

Midwest Region Semifinal

• Purdue +8 (-112)
• Houston -8 (-108)
• Over/Under 132.5

While I don’t have any interest in backing the Cougars on the spread, I think they in this game. This defense is way too good for anyone to score enough on them, and I don’t believe in Purdue’s defense enough to get stops. I am expecting a slower game, which is why I am pausing on paying the points with the favorite.

I think the under might be the play here, as Houston will certainly slow things to turtle speed against the Boilermaker offense that can be dangerous if they get going.

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