NCAA Basketball: Final Four Preview, Betting Odds & Early Insights

We are down to the Final Four! Only four teams remain in the Big Dance and for just the 2nd time since 1985, we have all four #1 seeds meeting in San Antonio. Ironically enough, when it happened in 2008, the Final Four was also in San Antonio as my own Kansas Jayhawks won the title. Some people would complain that this has been a “boring” tournament without a lot of upsets. But here is the bottom line.

All College Hoops season, we had four teams that were CLEARLY playing above the rest: Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida. And now we have those four teams, the undeniable best of the best, playing to be crowned National Champion. This is what it’s all about, for me at least. We get the four best teams playing to win it all. I’m not sure how anyone could want more.

To take things one step further, take a look at this image below. It lists the Top 10 teams of all time in terms of total efficiency according to KenPom, dating back to the 1996-1997 season. So roughly the past 30 years. Just take a look. All four of those teams fit the bill.

Look at it, and take it all in. We have four of the best ten teams OF ALL TIME competing in this year’s Final Four. This is what it is all about: Getting the four best teams in the nation to decide a champion. Let alone four of the best teams of the past 30 years. Three of those other six teams listed won the National Championship (2001 Duke, 2024 UConn, 2008 Kansas), with 1999 Duke and 2021 Gonzaga both being the National Runner-Up.

Anyways, let’s dive in to the two matchups this weekend, the updated betting odds to win the whole thing, and perhaps some early leans and insights into how you should be these games.

NCAA Basketball Final Four Preview

#1 Auburn Tigers vs #1 Florida Gators: Final Four Predictions

Betting Odds

• Auburn +2.5 (-110)/ ML (+124)
• Florida -2.5 (-110)/ ML (-144)
• Over/Under 160.5 (-110)

For just the 4th time all season, the Auburn Tigers are an underdog. They beat Houston and Alabama outright as underdogs, but lost to the Blue Devils this season. If Auburn wins this game and advances to the National Championship, we are guaranteed a rematch for the title.

The Tigers were already 11 point favorites against Florida when these two SEC schools faced off, with the Gators winning outright by 9 on the road. Bruce Pearl and the top ranked Tigers will have revenge on their mind as they take on Todd Golden’s squad once again. The Gators trailed Texas Tech for nearly the entire game before hitting four straight threes to overcome a 75-66 deficit to win. They’ve snuck by with a close win twice this tournament, will it all come to an end this weekend?

#1 Duke Blue Devils vs #1 Houston Cougars: Final Four Predictions

Betting Odds

• Duke -5 (-110) / ML (-245)
• Houston +5 (-110) / ML (+205)
• Over/Under 136.5 (-110)

The Dukies and Cougars meet up in San Antonio. Both teams have been ridiculously hot, each losing just one game since the end of November. However, something’s gotta give, and someone will have to lose. Duke’s offense will have to face the toughest defense they’ve seen all season long, and they really haven’t even seen one of this caliber since beating Auburn on December 4th. The ACC certainly didn’t prepare Duke for facing an opponent like this, but I’m sure they’ll be okay with all of their talent.

I actually have already booked the under in this matchup. Houston plays stupid slow, and their offense, while efficient, isn’t anything special. Duke’s defense is just as good as their offense, and with two slower teams, I see points being at a premium in this game. Houston plays as the 5th slowest team in the nation, while Duke is north of 270 in possessions per game. Sure, we have two electric, efficient offenses, but the defenses are two of the best in the country, and I see a meticulous, slow chess match between both coaches.

NCAA Basketball National Championship Odds

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Odds to Win 2025 National Championship

• Duke -110
• Florida +300
• Houston +400
• Auburn +550

The top ranked Tigers are actually the betting underdog in this spot. If you have faith in Auburn, I think you smack that +550 right now, as they will be favored over Houston (probably), and won’t be 5-1 dogs against the Blue Devils. Honestly, if you like either underdog to win the whole thing, Auburn or Houston, I would suggest taking them outright before in the Final Four. You won’t find them as 4-1 or longer in the championship regardless of their matchups, so I see this being the best price possible.

Now that I think about it, if you like anyone other than Duke, take them now. Unfortunately, that -110 number is probably the best you’ll see for Duke as well. They’ll probably be at least -130 to -150 favorites against the Gators and possibly -175ish against Auburn. While paying -110 for a tourney future isn’t fun at all, especially with multiple games left, it’s likely the best number left for Duke without laying points.

They are clearly playing the best basketball of any of these schools, as the other three have all had close calls in the tournament. It’s tough to win with freshman, but Cooper Flagg and Duke might be an anomaly to that sentiment.

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