When the women’s March Madness bracket was announced, one potential second-round matchup stood out. And with both teams taking care of business, we will indeed get to see Hailey van Lith lead TCU against Louisville in a Birmingham 3 Regional matchup in Fort Worth this evening (6:00 pm ET, ESPN).
After spending three seasons at Louisville, van Lith transferred to LSU last season, where she averaged only 11.6 PPG and shot a career-low 37.8%. Rather than move on to the pros, van Lith opted for one last ride in the collegiate ranks and transferred to TCU, who hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2010.
Thanks to van Lith, senior center Sedona Prince, and sharpshooter Madison Conner, not only have the Horned Frogs broken their tournament drought, but they have also had a record-breaking season.
They have shattered the previous school record for wins (25, set in 2001 and 2004), won both the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles for the first time, and earned a #2 seed in the tournament, beating their best result by four seed lines (a #6 seed in 2004).
After reaching the second round for the first time since 2006, TCU’s sights are set on reaching the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in program history. But to book a matchup with #3 seed Notre Dame—who they beat in the Cayman Islands Classic in November—they must see off van Lith’s former school, the seventh-seeded Cardinals.
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Louisville vs TCU Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- Louisville +12.5 (-110)
- TCU -12.5 (-110)
Total
- Over 136.5 (-110)
- Under 136.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Louisville +625
- TCU -1000
Louisville vs TCU Prediction and Picks
Louisville was picked to finish fourth in the ACC, and that is where they finished, in a tie with Florida State and North Carolina. But with ten losses and a lack of notable non-conference wins, the Cardinals landed their worst March Madness seed since 2012.
But after seeing off Nebraska 63-58 on Friday, they are in the second round for the 15th time in 16 appearances in the Jeff Walz era.
Can they go further? Against Nebraska, they shot poorly all around, but they were propelled to the win by forcing 24 turnovers and producing 27 points off those turnovers.
TCU didn’t dominate as expected in a 73-51 over Farleigh Dickinson in the first round, but they did still shoot 52.7% from the field. Their trio of van Lith, Prince, and Conner combined to shoot 52.4% (22 of 42) from the field and score 52 of the team’s points, pull down 20 of the team’s 38 rebounds, and dish out 11 of the team’s 18 assists.
As that trio accounts for 60.2% of TCU’s points, it’s fair to say that Louisville’s chances will largely come down to how well that corral them.
Ultimately, it is worth noting that Louisville ranks 16th in the 18-team ACC in three-point defense and 17th in the conference in field-goal defense. Nebraska, for all their troubles holding on to the ball, shot 40% (8 of 20) from three and a respectable 44.2% from the field overall.
That spells trouble in this matchup. A lot of eyes will be on van Lith’s performance, but after leading the way with 23 points and four triples against FDU, another big game by Conner will see the Frogs through to a first-ever Sweet Sixteen. Pass on the spread, but take the over.
More March Madness Information
All of our non-game content for this year’s NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments can be found in one place. Bookmark our March Madness main page to keep up with our picks, predictions, and tips on how to bet on the action at the best online sportsbooks.
If you are looking for more March Madness game coverage, we have plenty of that as well, in addition of this look at Louisville and TCU’s women’s March Madness matchup.
- Saint Mary’s vs Alabama Prediction & Best Bets
- Oregon vs Arizona Prediction & Best Bets
- Men’s March Madness Round of 32 Sunday Best Bets
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