After upsetting St. Bonaventure in the first round of the NIT, Kent State will look to fry an even bigger fish as they visit Stanford tonight with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line (9:00 pm ET, ESPN2).
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This is one of the two second-round matchups in the San Francisco region; the winner of this contest between the Golden Flashes (23-10) and second-seeded Stanford (21-13) will face either top seed San Francisco or Loyola Chicago in the quarterfinals.
In Tuesday’s 75-56 win at St. Bonaventure, Kent State led by one at halftime but dominated in the second, outscoring the Bonnies 46-28 to win convincingly.
Stanford also won comfortably in the first round but reversed the script. In an 87-70 win over Cal State Northridge, the Cardinal used a 19-7 run at the end of the first half to take a 17-point lead into the break, and they made that lead stand up to see off the Matadors.
This game will be taking place at the same time as some must-see TV in the men’s March Madness bracket and women’s March Madness bracket, and it certainly doesn’t have the luster of a Big Dance matchup.
But it is an interesting matchup between two teams who will be hungry to move on to the next round. A road win over an ACC squad would be a nice feather in Kent State’s cap, while a place in the last eight would be another positive step for Stanford, who hadn’t been to the postseason since 2018.
Kent State vs Stanford Betting Trends
- Kent State is 2-5 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
- Stanford is 18-5 SU and 12-11 ATS as a favorite this season.
- The Cardinal are 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS when favored by single digits this season.
- In Stanford games this season in which the total has been 140 to 145, the under is 7-5.
- In Kent State games this season in which the total has been 140 to 145, the under is 8-3.
- The under has hit in each of Kent State’s last four games.
Kent State vs Stanford Prediction and Picks
At both KenPom (which projects a 72-65 Stanford win) and Bart Torvik (which projects a 73-66 Stanford win), the numbers point to the under.
But is that the move here?
Neither team plays fast, ranking in the 200s in adjusted tempo at KenPom. Neither team shoots all that well, either. Stanford is 15th in the ACC in field goal percentage (43.5%) and tenth in three-point percentage (34.3%), while Kent State is ninth in the MAC in field goal percentage (43.8%) and tenth in three-point percentage (31.8%).
On the flip side, both teams are sound defensively. Kent State is the MAC’s best defensive team, ranking first in scoring defense (68.0 PPG), first in field goal defense (41.8%), and second in three-point defense (31.5%). Stanford’s numbers aren’t as good, but they are only 11 spots lower than the Golden Flashes in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, coming in 96th to Kent State’s 85th.
However, the over actually looks rather appealing here, in part because each of the first three completed games in this round of the NIT have all gone over.
That includes yesterday’s matchup between Bradley and George Mason, which looked even more likely to go under than this game but went over with points to spare.
This game might be a good option for live betting if you would rather follow the first several minutes to get a read on it. A slow first few minutes could drop the live total into the 130s. Also, taking the over pre-game and then hedging your bet live can come into play.
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