This week, the Players Era Festival, Maui Invitational, and other events have much of the college basketball spotlight. That said, there are some notable standalone matchups on the Feast Week schedule. One such showdown is tonight, as P.J. Haggerty and Kansas State will look to bounce back from their first loss in a road tilt vs. Tucker DeVries and No. 25 Indiana (8:00 p.m. ET, FS1).
The Wildcats (5-1) are coming off an 86-85 loss to Nebraska in the championship game of the Hall of Fame Classic. They trailed by as many as 15 points in the first half but turned the game around and even led in the late stages. However, Sam Hoiberg’s clutch offensive rebound and free throw in the final second gave the Cornhuskers the victory in Kansas City.
Tonight, Kansas State will play its first true road game of the season vs. an Indiana team that is off to a 5-0 start under new head coach Darian DeVries.
A key part of that 5-0 start is the coach’s son, Tucker, who is averaging 19.2 PPG and 5.8 RPG). The younger DeVries is making the most of another opportunity to play for his father after being limited to only eight games at West Virginia last season.
Indiana owns a blowout win over Marquette, but this shapes up to be the Hoosiers’ toughest test of the season to date. Entering tonight’s game, Haggerty leads Division I in scoring (28.0 PPG), and the Wildcats are averaging 92.8 PPG while ranking top-20 nationally in three-point shooting and overall field goal percentage.
Will the home team pass with flying colors? Read on for our Kansas State vs. Indiana prediction and best bets, as well as the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Kansas State vs. Indiana Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Indiana to win
Based on early results, Kansas State will be one of the most entertaining teams in college basketball this season.
Through six games, the Wildcats are shooting 52.1% from the field, including 43.3% from three, and have scored at least 84 points in every game. Haggerty has been at the forefront of those efforts, scoring at least 23 points in every game while tallying six or more assists four times.
But how far will being fun to watch on the offensive end carry the Wildcats?
Unfortunately, deficiencies on the other end of the court may significantly curb their ceiling. Entering tonight, they rank 90th at KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, with the most glaring issue a 57.4% field goal percentage for opponents on two-point shots. Yes, Nebraska shooting an extraordinary 86.2% (25 of 29) on twos does skew that. But all opponents but season-opening foe UNC Greensboro (17 of 41, 41.5%) have shot at least 52.8% from two.
Defensive lapses can and will be overcome against a fair few opponents, including some good ones, this season. But tonight’s game vs. Indiana is one in which trouble may arise for Kansas State.
The Hoosiers have a pair of perimeter threats in DeVries (46.5% on 8.6 attempts per game) and Lamar Wilkerson (44.4% on 7.2 attempts per game). But they have also connected on 58.4% of their twos and get to the foul line a decent bit, making no fewer than 16 free throws in every game to date and averaging 24 attempts per game.
Can Indiana keep Kansas State under 80 points tonight? It will be tough to do so, even if defensive results to this point are positive. But with the success they should have offensively, they will score enough to see off the Wildcats.
Kansas State vs. Indiana Best Bets
1) Kansas State/Indiana First Half Over 77.5 & (-110 at BetOnline)
2) Kansas State/Indiana Over 163 (-104 at BetOnline)
This play came up just short in Kansas State’s matchup with Nebraska, when the total was 81 and the two teams combined for only 80 (thanks to the Wildcats being held to only 35). But I’m happy to go back to the well again with a slightly lower total, as there should be plenty of scoring from the outset.
Indiana does rank 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, but competition comes into play there. The teams they have faced to this point currently rank 310th (Alabama A&M), 77th (Marquette), 221st (Milwaukee), 205th (Incarnate Word), and 314th (Lindenwood) at KenPom.
Fortunately, even if the Hoosiers allow some points, they should score enough of their own to more than offset that and help the over get across the line.
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