If Iowa is to return to the NCAA Tournament after a two-season absence, a win tonight vs. Ole Miss in the Acrisure Classic semifinals (9:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network) would be a nice addition to the Hawkeyes’ resume.
The Hawkeyes (5-0) have started well under new coach Ben McCollum, winning every game by at least 19 points and averaging 90.2 points per game.
But competition is about to stiffen for Iowa, starting with tonight’s game vs. Ole Miss and upcoming games against Michigan State, Maryland, and Iowa State.
The Rebels, fresh off last season’s run to the Sweet Sixteen, are also 5-0. Similarly, this matchup will kickstart a tougher stretch for Ole Miss, who will face Miami at home next Tuesday and St. John’s on the road a week from Saturday, as well as N.C. State in Greensboro, North Carolina on December 21.
This is a matchup more befitting the championship game of the tournament, which is taking place at Acrisure Arena in Palm Springs, California. The winner will face either Grand Canyon or Utah for the title tomorrow night and will likely be a firm favorite against either the Lopes or the Utes.
But who will that winner be? Read on for our Iowa vs. Ole Miss prediction and best bets, along with the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Iowa vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Iowa to win
A new coach has brought a new style of play to Iowa City, and the results could not be much better at this point.
The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of Division I in adjusted tempo and well in the 300s in average offensive possession length, but they are inside the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and have scored 101, 77, 81, 99, and 93 points.
Just as importantly, the Hawkeyes appear to be on the right track defensively. Xavier is their only top-100 opponent to date, so the numbers should be taken with a few grains of salt, but they are inside the top 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency after ranking 167th.
If they can maintain that, it would be Iowa’s first top-70 finish in that category since the 2015-16 season, when they were 30th. In nine seasons since, their best rank is 75th, and they have finished outside the top 100 six times, including 168th, 157th, and 167th in the past three seasons.
This improvement augurs well for Iowa to successfully navigate a step up in competition vs. Ole Miss, who ranks inside the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and just outside the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Like the Hawkeyes, the Rebels appear to have retooled their roster well after losing several key players. French guard Ilias Kamardine looks like a star, and A.J. Storr looks rejuvenated after a season of struggle at Kansas.
Both teams look like they have the potential to make some noise in March, though neither is projected as a high seed at present. That could change though, especially for tonight’s winner. It’s a real toss-up, and it should be close, but I think Iowa will eke out the win vs. Ole Miss.
Iowa vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
Iowa/Ole Miss First Half Over 67 (-105 at Bovada)
Iowa/Ole Miss Over 141.5 (-110 at Bovada)
This matchup will not be played at the pace of Kansas State vs. Indiana or Michigan vs. Auburn, but I like the prospect of the over for both the first half and the full game given how well both teams have done with maximizing their possessions. Iowa is averaging 1.34 points per possession (67.2 possessions per game), while Ole Miss is averaging 1.16 points per possession (70.9 possessions per game).
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