In the Women’s Final Four, there are going to be two first-time finalists as LSU and Iowa face off tomorrow afternoon in Dallas. On the men’s side, there will be at least one first-time finalist in Houston on Monday night, in the form of the winner of today’s first semifinal between FAU and San Diego State.
The Owls (35-3) are the nation’s leader in wins and the lowest seed remaining in the field, as they emerged victorious out of the chaos of the East Regional as the ninth seed.
To reach the Final Four in just their second NCAA Tournament appearance, the Owls upset fifth-seeded Tennessee and third-seeded Kansas State in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight behind two inspired and impressive performances.
The Aztecs (31-6), the fifth seed in the South Regional, found themselves behind in the second half against both Alabama, the tournament’s top overall seed, and Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
But SDSU used defense and timely scoring to destroy the title aspirations of the Crimson Tide and Bluejays and reach the Final Four for the first time as well.
Which of these Final Four first timers will play for a championship on Monday night? Read on for our FAU vs San Diego State prediction, as well as our picks for this evening’s first matchup at NRG Stadium.
Looking for More Men’s and Women’s Final Four Picks?
At Betting News, we will have predictions and picks for each game of the men’s and women’s Final Four.
- Miami vs UConn Prediction & Picks (Men’s Final Four Semifinal #2)
- LSU vs Iowa Prediction & Picks (Women’s National Championship Game)
But if you are interested in checking out picks elsewhere to get another perspective, there are a number of reputable sports handicapping services that we recommend.
One of those sources is Doc’s Sports, which has a great offer going right now.
Doc’s Sports offers a lot of free picks and content, but they also offer $60 worth of premium sports picks free for new premium signups.
FAU vs San Diego State Odds
Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, April 1, 2023.
Spread
- FAU +2.5 (-110)
- San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under
- Over 130.5 (-115)
- Under 130.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- FAU +122
- San Diego State -146
Will the Aztecs Ground the High-Flying Owls with Their Trademark Defense?
This certainly shouldn’t come as a surprise, but of the four teams vying for a championship in Houston, San Diego State is ranked highest in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rankings for the Men’s Final Four Teams
- 4. San Diego State
- 11. UConn
- 30. FAU
- 104. Miami
The Aztecs have shown this season that they can score when they need to, but their defense is why they are two wins from a title.
- College of Charleston (won 63-57): 18 of 56 FG (32.1%), 5 of 24 3PT (20.8%)
- Furman (won 75-52): 16 of 50 FG (32.0%), 6 of 26 3PT (23.1%)
- Alabama (won 71-64): 23 of 71 FG (32.4%), 3 of 27 3PT (11.1%)
- Creighton (won 57-56): 22 of 55 FG (40.0%), 2 of 17 3PT (11.8%)
- Tournament Totals: 57.3 PPG, 79 of 232 FG (34.1%), 16 of 94 3PT (17.0%)
FAU hadn’t really shot the ball all that well in the NCAA Tournament until their Elite Eight win over Kansas State. Against the Wildcats, the Owls shot 39.1% (9 of 23) from three and 48.1% (26 of 54) overall from the field.
Arguably the big key tonight for San Diego State is limiting FAU’s success from the perimeter. The Owls average 26.4 attempts from outside per game and convert at a clip of 36.5% (9.6 made threes per game). Nationally, they rank 14th in made threes per game, 20th in three-point attempts per game, and 56th in three-point shooting percentage.
In the NCAA Tournament, FAU is shooting just 31.2% (34 of 109) from outside, but they have made at least eight threes in each game and have attempted at least 23 threes in each game. So, it is imperative that SDSU doesn’t allow them to get hot at any point.
FAU vs San Diego State Prediction and Picks
Prediction for FAU vs San Diego State: San Diego State to win
Pick for FAU vs San Diego State: San Diego State ML (Best Value: BetUS)
Both of these teams are riding excellent ATS runs heading into the Final Four.
Since starting 3-11-1 ATS this season, the Aztecs have gone 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games and have covered in each of their last six games. The Owls, meanwhile, are 8-3-0 ATS in their current 11-game win streak.
Here, however, I am staying away from the spread and backing SDSU for the win over FAU. With spreads of fewer than three points, I prefer to go with the moneyline when betting on the favorite if the value is right, and the value is right here.
Where to Bet on FAU vs San Diego State
Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.
March is always a very popular time to bet on college basketball, and you can get in on the action at any of the top sports betting sites out there.
But these four books are all reputable names, and you can trust them with your betting funds.
Other March Madness Content at Betting News
If you’d like to check out our other NIT and March Madness betting content, here’s a rundown of what we have put together to help you with your college basketball betting until the season wraps up in Houston on April 3.
- NIT Bracket & Odds
- Men’s March Madness Bracket
- March Madness Odds
- Women’s March Madness Bracket & Odds
- Final Four Odds
- March Madness Sleepers
- March Madness Betting Trends & Stats to Know for 2023
- Where to Find the Best March Madness Betting Picks
- Best March Madness Betting Sites
- Best March Madness Bracket Challenges
- Betting News Bracket Mania (Our FREE March Madness Bracket Challenge! – CLOSED but you can look at the standings and entries)