Cincinnati vs. Xavier: Key Matchup Insights

The weekend gets rolling with a Big 12 versus Big East clash that should bring plenty of intensity. Cincinnati steps into its first true road test after a manageable start to the season, while Xavier has already pushed through a much stronger early schedule. The Bearcats strengths and weaknesses are about to be challenged in a tougher setting, especially with their issues guarding the three point line and taking care of the ball. Meanwhile, Xavier leans on its shooting, efficiency and ability to stay poised in tight spots. Everything points to a high level matchup that should set the tone for the night.

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Cincinnati vs. Xavier Odds

Will Xavier be able to hold down the fort against Cincinnati?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

Cincinnati: +1.5 (-110)

Xavier: -1.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 148 (-115)

Under: 148 (-105)

Moneyline

Cincinnati: +105

Xavier: -125

Cincinnati vs. Xavier Best Bet

Nothing sets the tone for a weekend quite like a Big 12 versus Big East showdown. Cincinnati makes the short trip to Xavier for its first true road test of the season. The Bearcats are coming off a Monday win over Tarleton State. Xavier, on the other hand, has been rolling since its loss to Georgia last week, taking down West Virginia, Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Saint Francis on Monday. They are trying to keep that momentum alive tonight.

Xavier enters as a short favorite over Cincinnati. The total has climbed nearly three points since opening at 145.5. I grabbed the Musketeers moneyline this morning at -130, but you can find a better number right now on BetOnline. This feels like a strong spot to back Xavier against a Bearcats team facing its first road challenge of the year.

Cruising Down Easy Street

Cincinnati has also benefited from a relatively manageable schedule to open the season. Yes, they played Daytona and Louisville, but those are the only teams inside the top 100 on their slate. Xavier has faced Santa Clara, Iowa, Georgia and West Virginia out of the gate. Haslametrics gives the Musketeers a strength in schedule edge of nearly 200 spots.

This matchup should be a rock fight, since both teams bring excellent defense. However, Xavier has a chance to exploit one of Cincinnati’s biggest issues. The Bearcats are 131st in three-point defense, which is respectable, but they are also 297th in three-point rate defense. Launching the deep ball is what Xavier does best. They sit 35th in three-point percentage and 79th in three-point rate, so they are shooting it well and shooting it often. That is not ideal for a team that has yet to step into a truly hostile road setting, even if the game is still in the same city.

Xavier also takes care of the ball at an elite level, ranked 15th in turnover offense. They are top 110 in forcing turnovers as well. Cincinnati can force turnovers, but the Bearcats cough it up at a high clip, sitting 290th in turnover rate offense, which levels things out.

One area of concern for Xavier is interior scoring. They rank 333rd in two point percentage, and that has held them back at times. If they clean that up and attack the glass with purpose, this will be a difficult matchup for the Bearcats.

Xavier has been tested early, they have taken some punches, and they have looked more polished since beating West Virginia. This is another spot where their experience, shooting and ability to take care of the ball should shine. Cincinnati is talented, but this is a different kind of challenge than what they have seen so far, and their weaknesses line up with what Xavier does best. If the Musketeers stay disciplined on the perimeter, limit mistakes and stay active on the glass, they will put themselves in a strong position late. I like the matchup, I like the spot, and I am backing Xavier to finish the job.