Chicago State vs #24 Illinois: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights |. December 29, 2024

Illinois and Chicago State face off in a lopsided matchup that carries drastically different stakes for each team. The Fighting Illini are tuning up for a pivotal Big Ten road game against Oregon, while the winless Cougars are simply looking to compete and salvage some pride. Despite their struggles, Chicago State’s grueling schedule and surprising success against the spread make this an intriguing contest for those watching beyond the scoreboard.

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Chicago State vs #24 Illinois Odds

Can Chicago State somehow pull off the impossible?

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Spread

Chicago State: +39.5 (-110)

Illinois: -39.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 150 (-115)

Under: 150 (-105)

Chicago State vs #24 Illinois Predictions

As non-conference play wraps up, teams are shifting their focus to the start of their conference schedules. Schools like Illinois are preparing for their first conference road trip later this week. After this game, the Fighting Illini will travel to Oregon to face the Ducks, marking their most significant Big Ten matchup yet. Meanwhile, Chicago State, one of the worst teams in the country, is living in the moment. Taking on the Fighting Illini is their version of looking ahead—it just happens to be today. After today, Chicago State heads to Wagner on Friday. This game undoubtedly means more to the Cougars than it does to the Illini.

Respect the Cougars’ Schedule

The Cougars enter this matchup winless, having lost every game they have played this season. Despite their struggles, they have found success elsewhere, going 6-8 against the spread. In their last seven games, they have covered in five matchups. Chicago State is also one of the most battle-tested teams in the country. There should be no pregame jitters for the Cougars, as Illinois will be their sixth opponent ranked inside the top 100. According to Haslametrics, the Cougars have faced the 38th toughest schedule in the nation. Beyond those five games against top-100 opponents, they have played six teams ranked inside the top 200 and just three teams inside the top 250.

Chicago State’s advanced analytics for away and neutral games do not offer many bright spots, except for their offensive rebounding and free throw rate. They rank as a top-250 offense, 140th in free throw rate offense, and 32nd in offensive rebounding. Given the level of competition they have faced, those numbers are fairly impressive.

All that said, I am fully leaning toward Chicago State to keep this game competitive. What does “competitive” mean for the Cougars? They are not winning this game, but keeping it within 40 points would be a victory of sorts. With Illinois looking ahead to Oregon on Thursday, they are likely to be less motivated for this meaningless game, which they can coast through and still win comfortably. This theory stems from watching Maryland play a lackadaisical game against UMES while preparing for Washington later this week. Their spread was in the 40s as well, and I think this is another great opportunity to fade a massive spread and back the underdog.