Purdue vs. Alabama is by far the headliner on tonight’s college basketball schedule, as it would be on many nights. But there’s another power conference clash worth tuning into, and that is Cal vs. Kansas State, which will tip off at 9:00 p.m. ET and air on CBS Sports Network.
It will be a homecoming of sorts for Cal guard Dai Dai Ames, who spent his freshman season at Kansas State, where he started 16 games. After a year at Virginia, Ames (21.7 PPG) made the move to Berkeley, where he has been key to the Bears’ 3-0 start.
The Wildcats have their own high-scoring transfer guard in P.J. Haggerty. Haggerty may not have expected to trade Memphis for the other Manhattan when he hit the portal in April. But he has been a big hit already in the Little Apple, scoring 50 points and dishing out 14 assists in his first two games.
Tonight’s Cal vs. Kansas State matchup will be an early barometer for where both teams are with their preseason aspirations. The Bears, who were picked to finish 16th of 18 teams in the ACC, are seeking their first winning season and postseason berth since 2017. They will aim to outperform those preseason projections, as will the Wildcats. K-State was picked ninth in the Big 12 and are considered a bubble team at best at this juncture, despite the addition of Haggerty and other talented transfers.
Will Ames and Haggerty put on a show tonight in Manhattan? Get our Cal vs. Kansas State prediction and picks, as well as the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Cal vs. Kansas State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal | +6.5 (-110) | +230 | Over 163.5 (-115) |
| Kansas State | -6.5 (-110) | -280 | Under 163.5 (-105) |
Cal vs. Kansas State Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Kansas State to win
This is the first real test of the season for both the Bears and Wildcats, who have opened with double-digit wins over competition they were expected to and did beat comfortably.
Thus far, Cal has dispatched Cal State Bakersfield (87-60), Wright State (77-67), and Cal State Fullerton (93-65). If they want to challenge for a postseason berth, a win tonight vs. Kansas State would go a long way, considering the rest of their non-conference schedule largely consists of mid and low majors outside of games against UCLA and Utah.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, soundly smashed UNC Greensboro (93-64) and Bellarmine (98-71).
Much tougher competition awaits, both in the Big 12 and in a non-conference schedule that also sees K-State face Mississippi State, Indiana, and Creighton, but the early scoring is a positive sign.
After scoring 90+ six times on the way to reaching the Elite Eight in Jerome Tang’s first season, the Wildcats had hit that number just four times in 67 games across the past two seasons before hitting the ground running this season.
If Cal is to have a chance to keep up vs. Kansas State, the Bears’ own scoring must translate to tougher games as well. Last season, they averaged 75.6 points per game but scored 80+ points only seven times in 25 games against power conference opposition, and four of those were overtime games.
This means the Bears will need a big night from Ames in his return to Manhattan, as well as a better shooting performance from Michigan transfer Justin Pippen, who is averaging 14.3 PPG through three games but shooting only 16.7% from three and 33.3% from the field.
Even so, it’s hard to see Cal coming close vs. Kansas State, who has a clear advantage tonight at home.
Cal vs. Kansas State Picks
1) Kansas State -6.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
How well the Wildcats’ collection of new faces gel? We shall see. After all, in addition to Haggerty, K-State has two other guards who were the big dog at their previous stops (Nate Johnson at Akron and Abdi Bashir Jr. at Monmouth), and with just one ball and only so many shots to go around, finding the right balance can be tough.
That said, things seem solid so far. Haggerty leads the way (and should continue to do so), but all three did their share of shooting and distributing in the first two games. And while where they are right now may not be where some of their Big 12 rivals are, the Wildcats are in a better spot than Cal, and there are too many clear threats for the Bears to contain them all.
2) Cal/Kansas State Over 163.5 (-110 at Everygame)
If nothing else, I am unashamedly hardheaded. And despite preaching caution with totals early in the season, I return for another over after coming out on the losing end in VCU vs. Utah State and Minnesota vs. Missouri.
The Cal vs. Kansas State total is a lofty one to tackle, but the Wildcats have three guys who can pour in the points on any given night, and Cal can mix it up too, especially if Pippen can find his shot.
Also, while KenPom (81-74 Kansas State) and BartTorvik (79-74 Kansas State) both project an outcome in the 150s, I don’t believe in either team’s defense at this point, despite some decent performances against inferior competition, to say the under is the definitive move here.
3) Kansas State Team Total Over 84.5 (-130 at Lucky Rebel)
This is a bit of protection against an outcome such as last night, when the under hit but Missouri’s team total went over by a hair.
Cal will pose more of a challenge than UNC Greensboro and Bellarmine, but Haggerty (51.7% FG, 42.9% 3PT), Johnson (61.1% FG, 70% 3PT), and Bashir (52.4% FG, 52.9% 3PT) are all off to hot starts, and I don’t see them cooling off too much tonight at home.
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