BYU’s money men paid a hefty sum to put Provo in the college basketball spotlight, and through the first few weeks of the season, the Cougars look like the top-10 team they were projected to be in the preseason. And after blowing out Wisconsin last time out, BYU will look to power past another power conference foe in the ESPN Events Invitational semifinals vs. Miami (5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Thus far, the only blemish for the ninth-ranked Cougars (4-1) is an 86-84 loss to UConn, in which they trailed by 20 in the second half but could have tied the game in the final minute.
The Cougars rebounded with a 98-70 whipping of Wisconsin last Friday, with Richie Saunders (26 points), AJ Dybantsa (18 points), and Rob Wright III (10 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds) leading the way.
Saunders (20.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG)), Dybantsa (19.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG), and Wright (16.2 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.6 RPG) are all off to strong starts for BYU, and they will look to keep it up vs. Miami, who is off to a solid 5-1 start under first-year head coach Jai Lucas.
While BYU has already played Villanova, UConn, and Wisconsin, Miami’s lone opponent of note to date is Florida, who defeated the Hurricanes 82-68 in Jacksonville. The Canes have cruised against their other opponents, winning each game by 17+ points and averaging 97 points per game, but today’s contest in Kissimmee will be another big step up for a team aspiring to finish high in an ACC that is wide open beyond Duke, Louisville, and perhaps North Carolina.
Can the Canes cause some consternation for the Cougars? Read on for our BYU vs. Miami prediction and best bets, as well as the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
BYU vs. Miami Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: BYU to win
Hype and preseason accolades don’t always translate to success, but based on early returns, these Cougars look like the real deal.
In the win over Wisconsin, Dybantsa (3 of 8 FG) shot below 50% for the first time this season in the win. Still, he continued his streak of scoring 17+ points thanks to making 11 of 12 free throws, while also tallying 6+ rebounds for the fifth straight time as well.
Wright didn’t have his best shooting showing against the Badgers either, making just 4 of 12 shots. However, he at least made 2 of 4 from three and filled up the stat sheet otherwise.
While the two highly anticipated arrivals certainly look like money well spent, the team’s leading scorer is a returnee in Saunders. He bounced back from missing all seven of his outside attempts against UConn by making 5 of 9 against Wisconsin.
To think, the Cougars nearly overcame a 20-point deficit against UConn and throttled Wisconsin without Kennard Davis Jr., who is currently suspended indefinitely.
As it is, this looks like the team that could bring BYU its first Final Four appearance, but could a stern test be ahead vs. Miami?
Overall depth and foul shooting (currently 67.5% on 25.7 attempts per game) may tell the tale on how far Lucas’s first squad can go. But the Canes have a nice core in experienced transfers Malik Reneau, Tre Donaldson, Tru Washington, and Ernest Udeh Jr. and elite recruits Shelton Henderson and Dante Allen.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miami hang with BYU. Do I see an upset happening? No, I won’t go that far. But if the shots (one, two, and three-pointers) are falling for the Canes, things could get very, very interesting.
BYU vs. Miami Best Bets
BYU/Miami Over 163.5 (-113 at Lucky Rebel)
Miami Team Total Over 77 (-120 at Bovada)
Even with a 68-point performance against Florida, Miami is averaging 92.2 points per game, while BYU is averaging 87.2 PPG. Both teams also rank in the top 50 in average offensive possession length. So, we should see plenty of shots go up and plenty of points as a result. KenPom projects an 85-77 BYU victory, while Bart Torvik projects an 87-81 win for the Cougars (both of which spread bettors should take note of).
That the Hurricanes shot very poorly against the loss to the Gators (29.4% from three and 33.8% overall from the field, as well as 55.6% from the free throw line on 27 attempts) in their only previous contest of this caliber does give me some pause about investing too much into the over when BYU has allowed more than 70 points just once so far.
But with how much action I expect to see on both ends, I don’t see the over falling short. And I feel good about the Canes doing their part to help it get over the line, especially if they can actually make their free throws. That is something they have not done at a clip of 70% or higher since the season opener.
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