#7 Saint Mary's vs #2 Alabama: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 23, 2025

Saint Mary’s and Alabama clash in a battle of extremes—one of the fastest teams in the country versus one of the slowest. Beyond tempo, it is an elite offense against an elite defense, testing the old adage that defense wins championships. This matchup sets up perfectly for a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

Need more March Madness content? Click this link.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always FREE.

Last Month in CBB: 41-47 (-3.1 Units)

#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama Odds

Can Alabama handle Saint Mary’s lockdown defense?

BetOdds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

Saint Mary’s: +5.5 (-108)

Alabama: -5.5 (-112)

Total

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Saint Mary’s: +208

Alabama: -248

#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama Best Bet

Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama—a game I have had circled for a week.Two completely opposite styles of play clash in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The fastest team in the country faces off against one of the slowest. Whose tempo will dictate the pace? On top of that, a top-five offense takes on a top-five defense. Does defense really win championships? Let us get into why this game is going under.

Saint Mary’s Style

Saint Mary’s has maintained a top-five defense since February 1, excelling in effective field goal percentage defense, rebounding, free throw rate defense, and defending both the inside and the perimeter. Most importantly, they rank 17th in three-point rate defense. The Gaels have held teams under 65 points all season long. Some will argue they have not faced a tough schedule, but holding teams under 60 points per game (No. 1 in the country) away from home all season is impressive. As I mentioned earlier, the Gaels are the third-slowest team in the nation. They thrive on suffocating defense and draining the clock for 40 minutes.

Alabama’s Syle

The closest comparison to a team Alabama has already faced this season is Tennessee. The Volunteers love to play slow with impeccable defense. Alabama played Tennessee in Knoxville on March 1, and that game saw 155 total points. The difference? Tennessee has a much better offense. Saint Mary’s is ranked 57th in offensive efficiency, 238th in three-point percentage, and 308th in three-point rate. On top of that, they are 270th in free throw percentage.

I have zero respect for Alabama’s defense. Despite what the numbers say, they do not play defense. If you have watched them, you know they do not guard anyone. They want to outscore their opponents and fly up and down the court. Their offense is elite, but they have struggled from beyond the arc. Today, they go up against the third-best perimeter defense on the road. I smell trouble for the Crimson Tide.

I have a lot of respect for this Saint Mary’s team. If they want any chance of staying in this game, they must turn it into a slow rock fight. They will not win a shootout. Chew the clock. Play exceptional defense. Game goes under.