#4 Arizona vs #1 Duke: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 27, 2025

Duke faces off against an Arizona team that has been playing above expectations but is due for regression. The Blue Devils have dominated on both ends, boasting the nation’s top offense and an elite defense since February. With travel fatigue potentially affecting Arizona, Duke has a prime opportunity to take control early.

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#4 Arizona vs #1 Duke Odds

Will Duke coast past Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen, or will the Wildcats give them trouble?

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Spread

Arizona: +8.5 (-106)

Duke: -8.5 (-114)

Total

Over: 154.5 (-115)

Under: 154.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Arizona: +335

Duke: -415

#4 Arizona vs #1 Duke Best Bet

Let’s get in and out of this matchup. We are taking Duke to cover the first-half spread against an Arizona team that is long overdue for regression. The Wildcats have undoubtedly played above expectations, even as a four-seed in this tournament. Relying heavily on Caleb Love to be consistent will be their downfall.

I grabbed 4.5 on the morning of Monday, March 24th. Do I think Duke can cover 8.5? Sure, but I expect Arizona to start just as sluggish and disorganized as they did against Oregon.

Now, they have to go up against the number one offense and 11th-best defense away from home since February 1st. Duke has by far been the best team in the country by a wide margin, playing efficient basketball inside and out. They do not send opponents to the line, and they do not turn the ball over.

Since February 1st, Arizona has struggled to force turnovers, ranking 290th. They also do not rely heavily on threes, ranking 305th in three-point rate. Meanwhile, Duke ranks 8th in three-point percentage and 78th in three-point rate. If Duke gets hot, Arizona will have a tough time keeping up.

Arizona played well after falling behind early against Oregon, but now they have to deal with brutal travel—back to Tucson late Sunday night, then off to New Jersey. That is a lot to handle. I expect Duke to come out swinging in the first half and cover the 4.5 with ease.