#3 Iowa State vs Iowa: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | December 12, 2024

It’s rivalry night in Iowa City as the 7-2 Iowa Hawkeyes host the 7-1 No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones. With both teams known for their high-powered offenses and fast tempo, we’re in for a thrilling, high-scoring showdown. The total for this game is set at a massive 160, and it’s the over where we will be focusing our attention. Be sure to check out our other college basketball write-ups by clicking this link.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.

Last Month in CBB: 36-30 (+2.1 Units)

Last 7 Days: 7-6 (-0.38Units)

#3 Iowa State vs Iowa Odds

Can No. 3 Cyclones go into Iowa City and take down the Hawkeyes?

Iowa State vs Iowa odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

Iowa State: -5 (-115)

Iowa: +5 (-105)

Total

Over: 160 (-104)

Under: 160 (-116)

Moneyline

Iowa State: -220

Iowa: +190

#3 Iowa State vs Iowa Predictions

Game of the night in Iowa City, where two instate rivals collide in what promises to be an electric matchup. The 7-2 Iowa Hawkeyes host the 7-1 No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones, who come in as five-point favorites. The total sits at a massive 160, which makes sense—both teams rank in the top 70 in pace and are offensive juggernauts. Buckle up, this one’s going to hit ludicrous speed.

We are zeroing in on the over for this one—neither side stood out enough for a firm pick. If I had to lean, I would go with Iowa, especially after their tough loss to Michigan on Saturday (85-83, almost ten-point underdogs). They are back at home now, where they play much better. Side Lean: Iowa.

Now, back to the over. The Hawkeyes are significantly better offensively at home, ranking top 45 in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, three-point shooting, and two-point percentage. They are averaging 91.2 points per game at home this season.

Iowa State, meanwhile, boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. They rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12th in two-point percentage, and 24th in effective field goal percentage. They are also one of the best at getting to the line and converting free throws (Top 35 in both categories).

The key question is whether Iowa can score against Iowa State’s stifling defense. The Cyclones are ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, but their road/neutral performance (a three-game sample) drops significantly—127th in defensive efficiency, 300th in eFG defense, and 292nd in three-point defense. Those games were against Auburn, Dayton, and Colorado—three solid teams—but this suggests Iowa may have an edge offensively, especially at home.

Also, the tempo favors the over. The faster the game, the fewer opportunities for defense to make an impact. This will likely come down to which team can outscore the other, not who gets more defensive stops.

With Iowa’s home-court advantage and both teams playing at a breakneck pace, I think this total should soar over 160.