#3 Florida vs #22 Mississippi State: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | February 11, 2025

After their huge win over No. 1 Auburn, the Florida Gators travel to face Mississippi State, who is coming off a tight victory over Georgia. The line has dropped significantly, moving from a four-point Florida favorite to nearly a pick’em. Both teams are coming off strong performances, but the Gators may face a difficult challenge in avoiding a post-upset letdown.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always FREE.

Last Month in CBB: 35-46-1 (-13.33 Units)

Last Week in CBB: 3-10 (-6.3 Units) (One of my worst weeks of the season)

JUST FADE ME

#3 Florida vs #22 Mississippi State Odds

Can Florida continue their dominance against Mississippi State tonight?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

Florida: -1 (-112)

Miss State: +1 (-108)

Total

Over: 154 (-107)

Under: 154 (-113)

Moneyline

Florida: -116

Miss State: -104

#3 Florida vs #22 Mississippi State Best Bet

Coming off their Super Bowl victory over No. 1 Auburn on Saturday, the Florida Gators hit the road once again to face Mississippi State, who recently secured a narrow win over Georgia. The line opened at four in favor of Florida, but it has since dropped to nearly a pick’em. The Gators are one of the best teams in the country, but an 11-point underdog outright win on the road usually leads to a hangover effect.

At home this season, Mississippi State has excelled offensively, ranking 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 4th in two-point offense, and 23rd in effective field goal percentage. Defensively, they have struggled to defend the perimeter but are among the best in forcing turnovers. The Gators, however, have struggled with three-point shooting on the road, ranking 230th in efficiency, despite being 29th in three-point rate. When facing top-100 teams, the Bulldogs have stepped up, ranking 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 67th in two-point defense.

Florida has been shooting exceptionally well in their last two games. Against Auburn, they hit 48.4% from the field and 39.4% from deep. Before that, they shot 57.4% from the floor and 47.6% from beyond the arc in their win over Vanderbilt. Over these two games, they are shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from deep. It will be difficult to maintain such high efficiency on the road in back-to-back games against ranked opponents.

Florida is due for some regression. Despite the line dropping, Mississippi State is the better side in this matchup. If you can find them at plus money on the moneyline, I would suggest taking that as well, but always take the points in college basketball.