#25 Louisville vs SMU: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | January 21, 2025

Can SMU take down Louisville tonight at home?

Two teams with strong winning streaks meet tonight—who will see their streak come to an end? No. 25 Louisville has not lost since December 14, while SMU has won three straight. This matchup falls into the “unranked home favorite vs. ranked opponent” trend, but while trends are important, nothing in sports betting hits 100% of the time.

Let’s dive into this ACC matchup!

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#25 Louisville vs SMU Odds

Can Louisville extend their winning streak to nine game tonight?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

Louisville: +1.5 (-112)

SMU: -1.5 (-108)

Total

Over: 157.5 (-120)

Under: 157.5 (+100)

Moneyline

Louisville: +105

SMU: -125

#25 Louisville vs SMU Bet

Two teams riding winning streaks face off tonight—whose streak will end? Will it be No. 25 Louisville, unbeaten since December 14, or SMU, riding a three-game winning streak? Like my previous write-up on the No. 22 Missouri vs. Texas matchup, this is another “unranked home favorite vs. ranked opponent” trend spot. Is this trend the ultimate key to sports betting? No, it is not. Nothing will ever hit at a 100% clip. However, despite the Cardinals’ recent success, they seem due for some regression.

The Mustangs have endured a tough schedule this season, facing six top-100 teams, including Mississippi State, Duke, and North Carolina. While they only managed two wins in those six matchups, SMU still boasts a top-100 offense and a top-140 defense. They excel in key areas like offensive rebounding, getting to the line, defending the interior, and blocking shots, ranking in the top 100 in all of those categories.

At home, SMU has been lethal from three-point range, ranking in the top 75 in shooting percentage, even with a relatively low number of attempts (high-100s nationally). This is a perfect matchup against Louisville, which ranks 303rd in three-point defense. Additionally, SMU is relentless on the glass, sitting at 41st nationally in offensive rebounding, creating plenty of opportunities for second-chance points.

Downfall Due

Louisville has been impressive, going 6-5 against top-100 teams with a top-50 offense and a top-100 defense. That said, one specific stat pushed me toward SMU: Louisville’s loss to Oklahoma back on November 29. Maybe the Sooners were a completely different team back then, but they have looked terrible in conference play, and I have lost all respect for that team.

Is this a spite bet? Maybe. Louisville has won eight straight games, including four against top-100 teams, but they are due for a slip-up. I believe tonight at SMU is where it happens. If the Mustangs can replicate their performance against Miami—shooting over 50% from the floor and beyond the arc—they should have no trouble holding off the Cardinals. Asking college athletes to consistently hit 50% of their shots from all over is a tall order, but if SMU can be efficient and prevent the Cardinals from beating them with three-pointers, they can secure a home win over Louisville.