#24 Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's Predictions and Odds

The Battle 4 Atlantis championship is here, and both Vanderbilt and Saint Marys enter the tournament championship after grinding through three games in three days. This event always tests stamina, discipline, and depth, and this matchup brings all of that into focus.

Vanderbilt arrives with talent and pace, while Saint Marys brings its signature slow and steady style that forces opponents into long, physical possessions. The early season mileage is real, and it will be worth watching which team handles the wear and tear better as this game unfolds. With the Gaels already facing a tougher schedule and the Commodores leaning on their perimeter strength, this championship sets up as a fascinating clash of tempo, toughness, and execution.

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Last 7 Days: 18-7 (+14.44 Units)

2025-26 Season: 37-29 (+8.79 Units)

#24 Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Odds

Can Saint Mary’s take down a top 25 team?

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Spread

Vanderbilt: -3.5 (-112)

Saint Mary’s: +3.5 (-108)

Total

Over: 151 (-110)

Under: 151 (-110)

Moneyline

Vanderbilt: -168

Saint Mary’s: +148

#24 Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Best Bet

We head down to the Battle 4 Atlantis, where No. 24 Vanderbilt takes on Saint Marys in the championship game. Both teams are playing their third game in 3 days. Will the early season mileage slow them down, or will they stay fresh enough to fly up and down the court? Let us dive in.

The Commodores opened as a 3.5 point favorite, with the total sliding down from 152.5 to 151.5. I lean toward the under, due to the volume of games and with how slow Saint Marys likes to play. However, I think taking the points with the Gaels is the better look here. If this game stays under, the Gaels should cover the 3.5 in theory.

The Gaels have also faced a far tougher schedule than the Commodores. Haslametrics has Saint Marys sitting at the 168th toughest schedule to this point, while Vanderbilt holds the 209th. Every opponent Saint Marys has seen is inside the top 200, while Vanderbilt has taken on multiple teams ranked above the 250 mark. At this stage of the season, I trust the more battle tested group.

This Gaels squad has also handled quality teams with authority. They embarrassed North Texas 80 to 49, and they are coming off an 11 point win over Virginia Tech. Vanderbilt has beaten VCU and UCF, both by double digits.

Do Not Mess with the Gaels

There are a few areas where I expect Saint Marys to challenge Vanderbilt this afternoon. The Commodores have struggled with fouls, ranking 326th in free throw rate defense. The Gaels excel at getting to the line, ranked 66th in free throw rate, and they convert at an elite level, holding the eighth best free throw percentage in the country.

Another focus for Saint Marys will be limiting threes. Vanderbilt is a strong three point shooting team, sitting inside the top 50 in three point rate. The Gaels counter that with a 37th ranked three point defense and a 142nd ranked three point rate. They limit attempts, and they defend the arc at a high level.

Through these early games, I have been very impressed with how sharp and composed this Saint Marys group has looked. Their pace, discipline, and defensive awareness have carried over from possession to possession, and they have already shown they can weather pressure from quality opponents. The Gaels have balance, they have a clear identity, and they have multiple players who can step up when the game tightens late.

Vanderbilt is talented, but this spot sets up well for Saint Marys. Their ability to defend the perimeter, control the free throw battle, and dictate tempo should keep this game within reach from start to finish. I believe the Gaels have the toughness and execution to push this to the wire, and possibly even steal it outright.

Give me the Gaels to cover at 3.5.