#16 North Carolina vs. #11 Michigan State Preview

College basketball rolls on and tonight brings one of the most intriguing matchups on the slate. Two national powerhouses meet in Florida with a chance to make an early season statement, and there is plenty to break down on both sides. If you want a deeper look at pace, pressure, and the one angle that stood out the moment the line dropped, keep scrolling. This one has real potential to cash.

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2025-26 Season: 33-28 (+6.61 Units)

#16 North Carolina vs. #11 Michigan State Odds

Do the Tar Heels stand a chance against Michigan State?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.

Spread

UNC: +2.5 (-110)

MSU: -2.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 150.5 (-110)

Under: 150.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UNC: N/A

MSU: N/A

#16 North Carolina vs. #11 Michigan State Best Bet

Sports do not stop for holidays and the games must go on. We head down to the Fort Myers Classic in, you guessed it, Fort Myers, Florida. The No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels take on the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans in what could be the game of the day for college basketball degenerates like myself. For those looking for the Arkansas versus Duke game, our own Nate Hornung will have a write up later this evening, so be on the lookout for that. I lean with the Razorbacks against the spread.

Trust Your Gut

I am going to stick with trusting my initial leans this season and my gut went right to the under in this matchup. I snagged the opening total at 150.5. Both teams have been tested this season, but I think this is a spot where their defenses outshine their offenses. Plus, I think Tom Izzo and his boys will control the pace of play in this matchup.

The Spartans are currently middle of the pack in the mid-200s in pace of play. They feel much slower than that ranking suggests, but their defense is the highlight of the team, as it normally is with an Izzo-led Sparty squad. Through six games this season, the Spartans have not allowed a team to score 70 points. Shockingly, no team inside the top 25 has scored above 66 points against them. Both Arkansas and Kentucky ended with 66.

Michigan State has excelled at getting after the boards, ranked top 25 on both ends. They have also been great at forcing turnovers and avoiding fouls, ranked top 80 in both categories.

On the other side, North Carolina has endured the 298th easiest schedule up to this point, per Haslametrics. The only top 100 team they have faced is Kansas, where they won 87-74 on November 7. It is tough for me to give much credit for that home win, as Kansas has struggled against top 25 teams this season.

First Test of the Season

This matchup will be the Tar Heels’ first true test away from their home gym and it will not be an easy one. I do like that their defense has been excellent so far this season, owning the second-best two-point defense and the third overall eFG% defense. I expect their defense to hold up, as they have all season. Their offense has not been tested enough, which is why I lean with the under, along with Michigan State most likely forcing a slower pace.

This matchup is a true test for North Carolina and a chance for Michigan State to assert their identity. The Tar Heels’ offense has not faced a challenge like this, while the Spartans excel at slowing games down and controlling possessions. With both teams likely keeping scoring low, the under looks like the smart play in this clash of top 25 programs.