#11 Xavier vs #11 Texas: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 19, 2025

Texas may not have the flashiest record, but their battle-tested resume makes them a dangerous matchup. Xavier, on the other hand, has racked up wins against weaker competition, masking real defensive concerns. With the Longhorns excelling in key areas and the Musketeers looking overvalued, Texas is the play to cover the spread.

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#11 Xavier vs #11 Texas Odds

Can Texas prove they deserve to be in the tournament, or will Xavier demonstrate their value on the big stage?

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Spread

Xavier: -3 (-110)

Texas: +3 (-110)

Total

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Xavier: -153

Texas: +133

#11 Xavier vs #11 Texas Best Bet

Despite Xavier’s strong finish to the regular season, I, unlike others, find it unimpressive. Sure, the Musketeers went 8-2 in their final ten conference games, but against who? Providence twice, Butler twice, Creighton twice, Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Villanova—six of those ten games came against the conference’s weakest teams.

Now, they face a Texas Longhorns squad battle-tested in the nation’s toughest conference. Texas closed the regular season with just three wins in their last ten, but that came against elite competition—eight of those games were against teams inside Bart Torvik’s top 50. They won road games at LSU, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.

Since February 1, Texas has maintained a top-25 offense on the road while ranking 64th in defense. They have excelled at protecting the ball, getting to the line, shooting from deep, and locking down the perimeter. Their biggest red flag? Sending teams to the free-throw line at the seventh-highest rate in the country.

Meanwhile, Xavier has faced significant struggles defensively on the road during that stretch—ranking 326th in eFG% defense, 296th in offensive rebounding, 275th in two-point defense, and 326th in three-point defense. Overall, during that stretch, they have posted the 314th eFG% defense, been the second-worst offensive rebounding team, and ranked 29th worst in two-point defense.

I believe Xavier is being overvalued here. Sure, Musketeer fans will likely pack the gym with the game being played in Ohio. However, despite their record, Texas has been playing great basketball against superior competition, while Xavier has benefitted from a weaker schedule in a less competitive conference.

HOOK ‘EM!