#11 North Carolina vs #11 San Diego State: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 18, 2025

The Tar Heels may have had a rough season, but they are playing their best basketball at the right time. Despite their underwhelming resume, North Carolina has the tools to exploit San Diego State’s weaknesses in this 11-seed matchup. With strong three-point shooting and rebounding, the Tar Heels should cover the spread and handle business in Dayton.

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#11 North Carolina vs #11 San Diego State Odds

Will North Carolina prove they deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament?

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Spread

North Carolina: -4 (-115)

San Diego State: +4 (-105)

Total

Over: 142 (-110)

Under: 142 (-110)

Moneyline

North Carolina: -183

San Diego State: +163

#11 North Carolina vs #11 San Diego State Best Bet

A lot of people are up in arms about the Tar Heels being included in the NCAA Tournament with their underwhelming resume. Personally, I do not care; I have no control over the selection process. However, I do have control over the pick I am making in this 11-seed matchup. Some may disagree, but I love the Tar Heels in this spot against the Aztecs. With both the Mountain West and ACC underperforming this season, I am taking the team with the hotter hand over the last month and a half.

Respect North Carolina

Since February 1, North Carolina has been playing fantastic basketball, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency and 67th in defense. They have been lights out from beyond the arc, ranking 6th in three-point percentage, while their inside game has been solid, ranking 80th in two-point percentage. These stats only improve when they play away from home.

I was impressed by how well the Tar Heels performed in the ACC Tournament, even though they lost to a banged-up Duke team in the semifinals. They easily handled Notre Dame and Wake Forest, and some would argue they could have beaten Duke if not for a lane violation late in the game.

On the other hand, San Diego State boasts a great defense, ranked 23rd since February 1, but their offense ranks just 134th. They have struggled in key areas the Tar Heels can exploit. For one, they allow a ton of three-point attempts, ranking 16th highest in the nation. North Carolina has been deadly from deep, so if the Tar Heels get hot from beyond the arc, it could be a long day for the Aztecs. San Diego State has also struggled with shooting from three, ranking 261st in percentage. Rebounding has been another issue, as they rank 257th in offensive rebounding and 278th in defensive rebounding. The Tar Heels, by contrast, have been dominant on the boards, ranking 115th offensively and 68th defensively.

This game will come down to who can dictate the pace of play. The Aztecs will want a slow-paced matchup, while the Tar Heels will look to turn it into a track meet. I believe the Tar Heels take care of business here. San Diego State has struggled in games away from home, and with this game being played in Dayton, travel could be a factor. Additionally, San Diego State has been sending opponents to the free-throw line at a high rate, while they are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country. Two areas where the Tar Heels excel.

Just put some respect on the Tar Heels and take them with the points.