#1 Houston vs #1 Duke: Odds & Predictions | April 5, 2025

The formula has been working all tournament long—attack the first half and do not look back. Saturday’s Final Four showdown is no different. Here is why Duke first half (-2.5) is my favorite play on the board.

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#1 Houston vs #1 Duke Odds

Can Houston keep up with Cooper Flagg and Duke?

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Spread

Houston: +5 (-110)

Duke: -5 (-110)

Total

Over: 136 (-110)

Under: 136 (-110)

Moneyline

Alabama: +245

Duke: -290

#1 Houston vs #1 Duke Best Bet

The key to my success in the 2025 NCAA Tournament has been simple—“get in and get out.” What does that mean? We do not care about the second half. That is why Duke first half (-2.5) is the move in this Final Four matchup.

Duke has only improved as the tournament has progressed. Personally, I believe this is the team that will cut down the nets on Monday night, but I have no interest in laying -5.5 for a full-game spread against the Houston Cougars.

Can Houston Keep Up?

Houston is a team I just cannot get behind. I am never a fan of slow teams—they rarely keep up with more explosive, better-paced offenses. Duke is not exactly a run-and-gun team, but in this matchup, they should look to speed things up and force Houston out of its comfort zone. Since March 1st, Duke ranks 245th in tempo. Houston? They are the 38th slowest team in the country. In order to hang with the number two offense in the nation during that span, Houston will need to play nearly perfect basketball.

Yes, the Cougars boast the second-best defense in the country—arguably the best—but Duke does everything Houston does, just at a higher level.

The way I see it, Houston must be flawless to beat Duke. Duke does not need to be flawless to get past Houston. That is not to say Houston is not a good team, but their offense is clearly a step below Duke’s. Their offensive numbers are inflated due to a low volume of possessions stemming from their snail-like pace, and it simply does not tell the full story of who they are.

I expect the Blue Devils to come out fast, take control early, and put pressure on Houston to adjust—a pace change they likely will not be able to make. Duke, in theory, should win this game by double digits. Yes, I believe they are that much better. But again, I am sticking with what has worked. We get in, we get out. Duke first half (-2.5).

See you on Monday.