In many cases, the two best teams in a league or tournament do not end up meeting for the championship. But for the final of EuroBasket 2025, that is exactly what we will be treated to at Xiaomi Arena in Riga, in the form of a Turkey vs. Germany gold medal matchup oozing with suspense, significance, and skill.
Greece, Serbia, and Slovenia featured the three best individual talents in the tournament in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic, respectively. And the likes of France and Spain brought both talent and rich pedigrees.
But those teams will all be spectators for the 76th and final game of EuroBasket 2025, as the two finalists put perfect 8-0 records on the line in Riga.
Turkey vs. Germany is anything but a surprise showdown of squads who soared above expectations.
Two years ago, Germany went 8-0 to win the FIBA World Cup, scoring wins as an underdog against Australia, the USA, and Serbia along with the way.
After following that with a fourth-place finish at last year’s Olympics, Germany entered EuroBasket 2025 as one of the top three favorites along with France and Serbia. And they have resoundingly backed it up, averaging 101.4 PPG and winning seven of eight games by double digits.
While Turkey did not enter the tournament with the same lofty status, they were considered a possible contender. And they have shown that they could be a team to watch for the next World Cup and Olympics, dispatching six of eight opponents by double digits and scoring 90+ points in wins over Serbia and Greece.
Who will put a bow on a perfect run in Riga? Read on for our Turkey vs. Germany prediction and picks, complete with the best value odds from BetOnline or other top online sportsbooks.
Turkey vs. Germany Basketball Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | +2.5 (+100) | +115 | Over 172.5 (-110) |
| Germany | +2.5 (-120) | -135 | Under 172.5 (-110) |
Turkey vs. Germany Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Germany to win
No matter who wins, it will be a momentous moment for the victor.
Germany’s lone previous EuroBasket win came as hosts in 1993, when they lost three games between the two group stages, then edged Spain, France, and Russia in the knockout stages for a stunning title triumph.
Twelve years later, they reached the final largely on the back of an MVP performance by Dirk Nowitzki, who couldn’t lead them over the final hurdle against Greece.
This run to the final has seen Germany flex its muscles as a devastatingly deep unit, as well as get standout performances from Franz Wagner (21.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.6 APG) and Dennis Schroder (20.9 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.5 RPG).
Forty minutes vs. Turkey is all that remains for Germany to cap an outstanding run with a well-deserved trophy.
As it happens, Turkey deserves it every bit as much. This is just the second time that Turkey has reached the EuroBasket final, but it shouldn’t take another two-plus decades to reach another one.
The country’s previous appearance in a EuroBasket final was in 2001, when they hosted the tournament and pulled off a series of close wins—including a one-point overtime win over Germany in the semis—to reach the final, where they lost to Yugoslavia after leading at halftime.
Like Germany, Turkey’s run to the final has been partly down to depth and partly down to individual success. They wouldn’t be here without Alperen Sengun (20.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.0 APG), but they also wouldn’t be here without Cedi Osman and the rest of the supporting cast.
Turkey’s dismantling of Greece in the semifinals is fresh in the memory, and picking against them is difficult. But Germany has been the best team in the tournament and is the better team.
Turkey vs. Germany Picks
1) Germany ML (-133 at Everygame)
Given where the spread is, it’s fine enough to take the spread here. But with a ML in this range, it doesn’t feel like you’re taking a hit by making the safe play.
A Turkey win vs. Germany certainly would not be an upset. They hung 95 points on Serbia in group play, have rarely been troubled during the tournament, and have been dominant over their last seven quarters against Poland and Greece.
But there’s something to be said for Germany scoring 99 points against Slovenia while shooting 43.5% and 98 vs. Finland while shooting 42.7% and taking its foot off the gas in the second half.
I won’t go as far as saying the only team that can beat Germany is Germany, but this is an exceptional offensive team, and they are going to be hard to slow down or keep up with for four quarters.
2) Germany team total over 87.5 (-114 at Lucky Rebel)
Only once has Germany been held to under 90 points in the tournament. That was, still rather surprisingly, in the Round of 16 against Portugal. In that game, they scored only 31 first-half points then exploded in the second half in an eventual 85-58 win.
Turkey has given up 80+ points just once in eight games, but the one time was vs. Serbia, the lone team Turkey has faced to this point that occupies a similar tier as Germany.
3) Dennis Schroder Over 2.5 Made Threes (+105 at Bovada)
After going 0 for 7 from three against Portugal and 1 of 9 from three against Slovenia, Schroder got back on track against Finland. He nailed 4 of his 9 triples on the way to a 26-point performance, though the biggest headline was arguably his semifinal-record 12 assists.
He’s going to keep dishing, and he’s going to keep shooting. I like both props, but his three-point prop has better value and gets the nod here.
4) Ercan Osmani Over 11.5 Points (+120 at Bovada)
I thought Osmani could have an impact against Greece, but I certainly didn’t foresee him making six threes and scoring 28 points.
It’s unlikely that he will replicate that performance for Turkey vs. Germany, but he should be a factor. He has hit this number four times in eight games, and his shooting volume has increased in the knockout stage. After attempting 29 shots (13 from three) in five group games, he has taken 37 shots (17 from three) in his last three games, putting up 11 against both Sweden and Poland and 15 against Greece.
In a game that should feature plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities on both ends, this is an easy take.