Happy Tuesday. We’ve got a decent slate of NBA Games on the docket and a few games with some high totals. Let’s jump right into my favorite props tonight.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here.
Jaylen Brown o38.5 PRA (-110) | BetOnline
The Celtics have won 7 of their L10 games, recording wins over teams like the Cavaliers, Pistons and Magic (twice). The Celtics rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating over that 10 game span and 5th in net rating. The team looks a lot different from last year but one thing thats remained consistent is the play of Jaylen Brown. JB’s not only been consistent, but elevated his play to a new level this year.
Brown’s averaging a career high 28.4 points per game and he’s doing it while shooting 49.0% from the field. He’s seeing the highest usage of his career and he’s rewarded the Celtics with career highs across the board. Brown’s also averaging 6.2 rebounds per game this year and a career high 4.5 assists.
In the Celtics last 10 games, Brown’s averaging 28.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. Brown’s also scored 25+ points in 8 of the Celtics 10 home games this year and the team’s averaging 9 more points per game at home compared to on the road.
The last time these two teams met was during the first week of the new season. The Celtics lost by 10, Brown finished with 23/4/3 and shot 50% from the field. With Knicks in Boston tonight, JB and the Celtics have a chance to return the favor and tie up the season series tonight.
Cam Spencer o2.5 3s (+170) | BetOnline
Yeah, we’re getting spicy with Cam Spencer. The second year shooting guard’s averaging 10.3 points per game and he’s shooting 46% from beyond the arc. He’s been an absolute sniper for the Grizzlies in his second year and it’s really no surprise.
Spencer came into the league as one of the best shooting prospects in the 2024 Draft and it’s why the Grizzlies took him the 2nd round that year. He shot over 40% from three in 3 of his 4 years in College, the only year he was below that he averaged 18.9 points and his volume was relatively high.
Spencer didn’t play much in his rookie year, averaging just 10.1 minutes per game and taking still shooting 36.5% from three. This year Spencer’s shooting 46.0% from the perimeter and we see that jump to 51.1% on the road. He played 22.1 minutes per game in November and with Ja Morant still out of the lineup I don’t see that changing.
The Spurs rank 25th in 3s allowed this year, 27th in 3-point percentage allowed and rank bottom-10 in wide open 3-point attempts allowed. In the Spurs last five games, that wide open 3-point attempts number has jumped to 24.2 per game, ranking dead last in the NBA. San Antonio’s been soft on the perimeter this year and the best way to take advantage of that is with shooter’s like Spencer.
The Grizzlies are playing the last of a 4-game road trip and have a chance to finish it out undefeated. If the Grizzlies hope to win tonight it’ll be because the 3-ball is falling.
Brandon Ingram o24.5 Points (-111) | BetOnline
This one’s a little more chalky. Brandon Ingram is the leading scorer for the Toronto Raptors and the team’s sitting top-4 in the Eastern Conference. Ingram’s averaging 21.5 points per game this year but some of that’s because he’s playing in a new system and some of it’s because of the shared usage with RJ Barrett/Scottie Barnes. Regardles, the Raptors have won 14 of their 21 games so far this year and it looks like something we’re going to see more of.
RJ Barrett’s missed the team’s last four games and despite wins against the Cavaliers and Pacers, they’re now coming into this one off back to back losses. The Raptors were in New York for their latest game, losing by 22 in what looked like a “IQ revenge game”.
Quickley scored 19 points, shot 4/10 from 3 and was a big reason we saw such a steep decline in Ingram’s volume. Ingram took just 11 shots in that game, this coming directly after three straight games of 23+ shot attempts. In the three games prior without Barrett, Ingram took 26, 23, and 30 shot attempts. He scored 22, 26, and 37 points; respectively.
Ingram remains the Raptors #1 scoring option and fresh off back to back losses, it’s time to go back to your big gun. The Blazers are 20th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 25th in points allowed and 26th in opponent free throw rate. Ingram’s taking 29.7% of the Raptors free throws this year with RJ close behind at 28.4%. In the four games without RJ, Ingram’s seeing a 33% usage rate, taking 33.9% of the free throw attempts and accounting for 32.8% of the points.
The Blazers allow 121.2 points per game this year, rank 21st in defensive rating and 3rd in pace.
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