Day one of the Second Round was a day full of upsets. We saw Slovenia not only cash our +6 spread ticket, but win outright and basically eliminate Australia from contention.
Spain entered the 4th quarter up 11 points, only to lose the final period 27-11; eventually losing to Latvia, 74 – 69.
Canada was up 12 with 1:03 left in the 3rd, and then proceeded to give up a 13-0 run. Brazil then took the lead with three minutes left in the game and never looked back.
With both Canada and Spain losing, its win or go home for both teams. Winner moves onto the Elimination Round, loser has to qualify for the Olympics.
Spain vs. Canada Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Indonesia Arena, Jakarta Indonesia
- Date: September 3rd, 2023
- Time: 9:30 AM EST
Betting Odds
Courtesy of Bovada
Spread
- Spain +6.5 (-105)
- Canada -6.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Spain (+225)
- Australia (-285)
Total
- Over 168.0 (-105)
- Under 168.0 (-115)
Spain vs. Canada Breakdown & Best Bets
Blown fourth quarter leads, thats the story of how we got here. Both, Canada and Spain, were almost guaranteed to move onto the Elimination Round, both with double digit fourth quarter leads. Now there can only be one.
Spain is coming off Gold Medals at both the 2019 FIBA World Cup, and the 2022 FIBA EuroBasket Tournament.They were winners of 11 straight before their meltdown vs Latvia, and they haven’t lost back to back World Cup games since 1990.
The Spaniards have the experience, but Canada’s got the flash; enter, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o24.5 Points (-110)
Shai’s been the guy for Canada, that’s been made clear. He’s scored 20+ points in three of the four tournament games so far, averaging 27 min/game.
Shai’s coming off back to back games of 30+ minutes, and he’s taken 17+ field goal attempts in three of the four games. The one game he played just 17 minutes, shooting 5/8 for 12 points.
Canada has lost their L15 games, in which they score > 80 points. They’re gonna need to run it up a little. Canada needs to be the team that averages 97.3/game, not the team that put up 65 on Brazil.
SGA shot 8/18 vs the Brazilians for just 23 points, and they now face elimination against the reigning champions. While the whole team underperformed, it all begins and ends with their best player. SGA’s going to have to step up and take control.
We need Canadian Tuxedo Shai tonight, anything less isn’t enough.
Spain +6.5 vs. Canada (-105)
Meet the Hernangomez Brothers, Willy and Juancho.
Willy is averaging 16.5 ppg on 60% shooting, in just 20 minutes/game. He’s also coming off a EuroBasket 2022 Tournament MVP, in which he averaged 17 and 7.
Juancho, in the same EuroBasket Tournament, put up 27 points in the final against France, including 7 three-pointers. He’s currently averaging 12 and 4 but he’s also been seeing just about 20 mpg.
On the other side, Canada’s coming off an embarrassing loss to Brazil that saw them only score 65 points. They shot 33% from the field, including a combined 5/23 from their starters, minus Shai.
Despite this being Canada’s most talented roster ever, their lack of scoring depth was glaring. Shai had a sub-par game and it still seemed like he was the only Canadian that could score.
On the defensive side, Canada’s front court had no answer for former Raptor, Bruno Coboclo; finishing with 19 and 13.
They gave up 38 points in the paint to an undersized Brazil team, and now they face a Spaniard team that average 41 points/game in the paint.
With all the pressure of a win or go home game, I’m banking on Spain’s experience and better team play to keep this game close.
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