Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers
The 11-1 Oklahoma City Thunder enter the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday night as they host the 8-3 Los Angeles Lakers.
Oklahoma City opened as high as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 228.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Thunder have dipped slightly to -6.5 or -7 depending on the book, while the total has climbed to 230.5.
Let’s dive deeper into the matchup with my Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers preview and props.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers NBA Betting Preview & Predictions
Luka Doncic looks to lead his team to an upset win in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.
Thunder vs Lakers Preview
Apparently, there’s no such thing as a championship hangover in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have lost just once this season, and through their 11 wins they’re outscoring opponents by an average of 14.4 points per game – the best margin in the league.
Despite his absence, Los Angeles has been efficient offensively – ranking third in effective field goal percentage (58%) and sixth in points per 100 possessions (119.4). Defensively, though, it’s been a different story. The Lakers sit 23rd in defensive eFG% (56.4%) and 21st in defensive points per possession (117.1), which could prove costly against an OKC team that ranks fifth in offensive points per possession (120.9).
The Thunder’s shot profile is balanced, but perimeter-heavy, as they take nearly 40% of their attempts from three-point range. That’s bad news for L.A., which allows opponents to take over 40% of their shots from deep (23rd) and hit 37.2% of them (23rd). The Lakers also struggle to protect the rim, giving up a 71% conversion rate within four feet of the basket – the fourth-worst mark in the NBA.
Evidently, J.J. Redick’s Lakers are built around their offensive firepower. Los Angeles takes most of its shots from mid-range – the second-highest rate in the league – and converts them at a league-best 55.1%. However, that plays directly into Oklahoma City’s defensive strength. The Thunder boast the NBA’s top mid-range defense, holding opponents to just 36.1% shooting from that area.
Overall, OKC ranks first in defensive points per possession and third in defensive effective field goal percentage, making them one of the most complete defensive units in basketball.
Another key disadvantage for Los Angeles lies in transition play. The Thunder rank first in both offensive and defensive transition efficiency, while the Lakers sit just 26th offensively and 17th defensively in transition points per play. That’s a major gap, and one that could allow Oklahoma City to create separation and cover this larger spread.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Predictions
No surprise here – I expect Oklahoma City to come out on top. However, I’m not eager to lay a larger spread in the NBA, so my confidence in them covering isn’t particularly high. Instead, I’d rather look toward the total. I agree with the market’s movement upward — this game sets up to be a higher-scoring affair.
Both teams are driven by their offensive firepower, and the Lakers could take advantage of a Thunder defense playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Los Angeles ranks second in true shooting percentage, while Oklahoma City sits 11th. With both offenses capable of scoring in bunches and the pace likely to stay strong deep into the fourth quarter, we should see plenty of points – especially with added opportunities from late-game fouls and free throws.
I’m not necessarily listing it as an official play since we’ve missed the best of the number by a couple of points. If the total drops below 230 – either pregame or in-game – I’d be more inclined to pull the trigger. Until then, it remains a strong lean.
If you’re looking for more action, though, here are a few player props I shared on our Betting News TikTok page:
- Anfernee Simons Over 2.5 3pt FGS (-113)
- Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds (-104)
- Nikola Jokic Under 51.5 PRA (-115)
- Moussa Diabate Under 9.5 Pts (-125)
- Kon Knueppel Under 19.5 Pts (-120)
NBA Record: 31-23 (+5.25 units)
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