Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Preview & Props (10/21): NBA Opening Night Bets

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets

The NBA is officially back! The 2025-26 season tips off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET as the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder host the Houston Rockets at the Paycom Center.

Kevin Durant will make his debut with his fifth different organization after Houston acquired the future Hall of Famer in a massive seven-team trade. Now, at 37 years old, Durant returns to the city where his career began – only this time, he’ll be watching the Thunder raise their first-ever championship banner, something he once hoped to accomplish there himself.

Let’s dive into the first matchup of the new NBA season with my Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets preview and props.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets NBA Betting Insights

 

Get ready for NBA opening night with our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets preview and props on Tuesday night.

Can the Rockets spoil the Thunder’s banner raising ceremony?

Thunder vs Rockets Preview

Oklahoma City looks to keep the good times rolling after capturing their first NBA Championship in June, defeating the Indiana Pacers in a seven-game series. The Thunder capped off a remarkable season as the top seed in the Western Conference, finishing with a league-best 68-14 record. Their success was headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Looking to play spoiler tonight are the Houston Rockets – the team that finished right behind Oklahoma City in the Western Conference standings last season at 52-30. After being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, Houston reloaded by adding one of the greatest scorers in NBA history, Kevin Durant, to lead their championship push.

Houston’s projected starting five features Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun.

For the Thunder, the expected starters are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jalen Williams is out with a wrist injury.

The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the entire season due to a torn ACL, and Dorian Finney-Smith is sidelined with an ankle injury.

Sportsbooks opened with Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite and the total around 224.5. As tipoff approaches, the Thunder are now laying -7 at most books, with the total rising to 228.

It’s always tricky to project how teams will perform to start a new season, but with these two established rosters, we at least have a solid baseline of data and expectations from last year. One of the common criticisms of the NBA regular season is that star players often rest or lack full effort – but on opening night, with the storylines and emotions tied to this matchup, motivation shouldn’t be an issue.

Last season, Oklahoma City led the league in defensive rating, allowing the fewest points per 100 possessions, and ranked second offensively in points scored per 100 possessions. Houston wasn’t far behind, finishing fourth in defensive efficiency and 12th on offense.

Both teams should remain among the league’s elite on defense, but the biggest change could come on the offensive side for Houston. Their young core has another year of experience together, another offseason to refine their chemistry – and, of course, the addition of one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history, Kevin Durant.

The Rockets should come into this matchup with a chip on their shoulder. The Thunder are now the hunted – the team everyone in the West, including Houston, is looking to take down. Oklahoma City could be dealing with a bit of a championship hangover, especially with Jalen Williams sidelined, while Houston enters with plenty to prove. And you can bet Kevin Durant will be eager to spoil the celebration in his return to OKC. Both teams boast elite defenses, which should keep this one tight and lead to a back-and-forth battle. Given the circumstances, I’m taking the points with Houston at +7.

Oklahoma City vs Houston Props

As entertaining as this matchup should be, there isn’t much that stands out in the prop market. Oddsmakers have had plenty of time to fine-tune these lines, leaving little room for an early-season edge. Once the schedule fills up and multiple games tip off nightly, we’ll have more opportunities to find value. For opening night, though, there’s just one prop that catches my eye: Alex Caruso under 9.5 points.

Caruso’s minutes should rise slightly with Jalen Williams sidelined, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into more scoring chances. Last season, he averaged just seven points per game, with 64% of his shots coming at the rim and 36% from three-point range. Houston’s defense limits both areas effectively; they allowed opponents to take only 36% of their shots from deep (third-fewest in the NBA) and ranked 13th or better in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim and from beyond the arc.

Caruso’s offensive upside is limited even under normal circumstances, and his primary focus will remain on the defensive end. That was certainly the case last season, when Caruso averaged just three points per game in four matchups against the Rockets. With Houston’s offense now reloaded and featuring one of the greatest shooters in league history, expect Caruso’s focus to remain on the defensive end – disrupting plays and guarding elite scorers rather than looking for his own shot.

Bets:

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