Get ready to lay down some action in the NBA tonight. We’ve got a nine-game slate packed with intriguing matchups and betting angles, and I’m sharing some of my favorites below. Let’s dive into my best NBA bets and props for Wednesday, November 19.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, November 19
We’re coming off one of our worst outings of the season, going 1-3 (-2.51 units). We missed the Pistons–Hawks under by two points and fell short on both Ace Bailey Under 12.5 points and Jalen Suggs Under 4.5 rebounds by the hook. Our lone winner came easily with the Suns +2.5, as they rolled by 17. Let’s look to bounce back with more winners throughout Wednesday’s slate.
Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
Miami’s big man has been sidelined the past couple of weeks with a toe injury, but he’s been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s matchup with the Warriors. Even if he were fully healthy, you could still make a case for taking the under on his rebounds prop. But with the likelihood of limited minutes in his first game back, post-injury, this early in the season, it becomes an even stronger angle.
He’s averaging just eight rebounds per game and has stayed under 9.5 in half of his appearances. Golden State isn’t a dominant rebounding team – they sit 22nd in rebound percentage – but the key here is that this number is being posted as if he’s in a normal rhythm, not returning from injury with potential restrictions.
Josh Hart Under 5.5 Assists (-125)
This prop jumps out because of Josh Hart’s assist totals in his last two outings. He’s coming off games of nine and 10 dimes, and now his line is listed at 5.5. Before this small spike, he had gone over that number just once all season. Even with the recent bump, he’s averaging only 4.7 assists per game.
He now faces the Mavericks, who allow the fifth-fewest assists per game (24.6). This sets up as a good spot to sell high on Hart’s recent facilitation.
Jeremiah Fears Under 15.5 Points (-110)
The Pelicans’ 19-year-old rookie has opened his NBA career on a solid note, averaging 15.3 points through his first 14 games. He’s cleared this number in three straight, but only in half of his games overall.
Even with the respectable scoring average, his underlying metrics aren’t overly impressive. His usage rate sits at 26.8% (57th percentile), and he’s posting just 101.6 Points per Shot Attempt (24th percentile). He’s taking 40% of his shots from beyond the arc and hitting only 35.4%. Now he faces a Denver defense that ranks fifth in opponent three-point shot rate, fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions, and seventh in defensive effective field-goal percentage.
This sets up as one of the tougher matchups he’s seen, and I’m expecting him to struggle on the scoring end tonight.
Max Christie Over 9.5 Points (-112)
A player I don’t expect to struggle on Wednesday night is Max Christie. His points prop is sitting at a number we should be looking to take advantage of. Christie is coming off a one-point outing in Minnesota on Monday, but he’s still averaging 12 points per game this season. Outside of that performance, he’s stayed under double figures in only two other games. Before Monday, he had put together a 12-game stretch with at least 10 points in every outing.
He now gets a matchup with the Knicks, a defense that has taken a noticeable step back and ranks 26th in defensive eFG%. Christie has capitalized on his opportunities, sitting in the 75th percentile among his position group in Points per Shot Attempt (126.6). I expect his production tonight to fall in line with those underlying numbers and for him to find himself scoring over 9.5 points once again.
Best Bets:
- Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Josh Hart Under 5.5 Assists (-125)
- Jeremiah Fears Under 15.5 Points (-110)
- Max Christie Over 9.5 Points (-112)
NBA Record: 32-26 (+2.74 units)
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