Tuesday’s slate of hoops brings us just two games on the hardwood, but I’ve still got three plays that I’m riding tonight.
Let’s dive into my favorite NBA prop bets for Tuesday, December 9.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, December 9
Tyler Herro Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+107)
Tyler Herro might suit up for just his sixth game of the season. It’s been a messy year for him – first the offseason ankle surgery that delayed his start, then a toe injury shortly after he returned.
He’s listed as “questionable” tonight, but signs point toward him playing. If he does, I’m fading his three-point production. We don’t have much to go off this season, but in his five games he’s averaged 3.0 made threes on 6.2 attempts. Last year, he averaged 3.3 makes on 8.7 attempts.
Even with those averages, I’m not ready to buy in. He’s coming off another significant injury, and the Heat may want to ease him back in. More importantly, it’s a tougher matchup against a respected Orlando Magic defense.
The Magic rank sixth in defensive points per 100 possessions and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed. They also give up the second-fewest three-point attempts in the league (34%).
I’ll take the plus-money price on an unstable player going up against a formidable defense.
Immanuel Quickley Under 6.5 Assists (-115)
Let’s move into the only other matchup of the night, which takes us to the Great White North, as the Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks.
I’m betting Immanuel Quickley to stay under 6.5 assists this evening. He’s averaging 6.8 per game on the season, but that number has dipped to 5.5 over his last four outings. In that stretch, he’s stayed under 6.5 in three of the four games, and I’m banking on him doing so again Tuesday night.
Quickley’s usage rate is the lowest of his career (22.6%), and he’s running into a New York defense that gives up the seventh-fewest assists per game (25). It’s pretty clear he’s been playing a bit above his true level in the assists department, yet the books haven’t adjusted.
Let’s take advantage.
Scottie Barnes Under 6.5 Assists (-134)
Our third and final prop for Tuesday night brings us to another under on a player’s assists. That player is Scottie Barnes, whose prop is listed at 6.5 with -134 juice toward the under.
It’s a steep price, I get it – but we’re getting a strong sell-high spot on Barnes. He’s averaging just 5.3 assists per game this season, yet a recent surge has inflated his number.
He should come back down to earth not only because the Knicks limit opponent assists, but also because Barnes profiles more as a primary scorer in this matchup.
His PSA (points per shot attempt) is the highest of his career (119.7), and his eFG% is also at a career-best 55.6%. He’s going to hunt for his own shots more than facilitate tonight, and that’s a big reason this line is moving toward the under.
Best Bets:
- Tyler Herro Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+107)
- Immanuel Quickley Under 6.5 Assists (-115)
- Scottie Barnes Under 6.5 Assists (-134)
NBA Record: 59-40 (+13.4 units)
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