We’re coming off another solid performance the other night, going 2–0 and pushing our season record to 61–40, up +15.47 units. Let’s dive into the plays I’m sweating out for tonight’s slate with my NBA prop bets for Thursday, December 11.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, December 11
Houston Rockets Team Total Over 115.5 (-115)
The Rockets host the Clippers on Thursday night, and both teams come in off four days of rest. It’s been a nightmare season for Los Angeles, now sitting at 6–18, and they walk into a tough matchup with the 15–6 Houston Rockets.
Offensively, Houston is rolling. They’re averaging the fourth-most points per game at 121, rank third in points per 100 possessions, and sit 10th in effective field goal percentage (55.4%). It’s a strong setup against a Clippers defense that ranks 26th in points per possession and 25th in eFG% allowed.
Houston also takes 38.8% of its shots from mid-range – the second-highest frequency in the league. LA allows the 25th-highest mid-range rate (32.6%) and ranks 21st in opponent field goal percentage from that area (44.1%). With fresh legs after the long layoff, I expect the Rockets to come out firing and control this game from the start.
A team total of 115.5 feels low for Houston. They’ve gone over that number in 13 of 21 games and average 123.4 points in their wins. They’re laying -9.5 here and should have no issue playing up to that scoring profile tonight.
James Harden Under 4.5 Rebounds (-113)
Let’s stay in Houston for our next play, which is James Harden under 4.5 rebounds. He’s averaging 5.4 boards per game this season, but he’s stayed under this mark in three of his past four outings, and I’m expecting a similar result Thursday night.
If the Rockets put up the kind of offensive performance I expect, that should translate to fewer missed shots and fewer rebound chances for Harden. On top of that, Houston owns the league’s best rebounding rate at 55.3%.
Look for Harden to stay under his rebounds mark against the Rockets.
Saddiq Bey Under 16.5 Points (-110)
With our final play, we’ll head to New Orleans, where the Pelicans host the Trail Blazers.
Portland’s defense hasn’t been great this season – they rank 19th in both eFG% and Pts/Poss allowed, but they actually hold up better in the specific areas where Saddiq Bey operates most.
Bey takes 42% of his shots from three and 35% at the rim. The Blazers allow the fifth-fewest three-point attempts (35.6%) and hold opponents to just 35.6% from deep, which ranks 12th in the league. At the rim, they’re ninth in opponent field goal percentage (65.2%).
While the Pelicans as a whole may put up solid numbers, I don’t expect Bey to be one of the drivers. He’s been on a nice run recently, but this matchup sets up for him to take a step back.
Best Bets:
- Houston Rockets Team Total Over 115.5 (-115)
- James Harden Under 4.5 Rebounds (-113)
- Saddiq Bey Under 16.5 Points (-110)
NBA Record: 61-40 (+15.47 units)
Still Didn’t Get Your NBA Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
NBA Betting News NBA Betting News NBA Betting News NBA Betting NewsMore NBA News
NBA Prop Bets for Saturday, December 13 | Betting News
Tonight’s Best Player Props in the Association | NBA (12/10)
Tonight’s Best Player Props in the Association | NBA (12/10)
NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, December 9 | Betting News
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News