Happy Saturday, everyone! Hope you enjoyed all your Thanksgiving festivities and are ready to keep things rolling in hoops today. We’re coming off a 3-1 performance from the other night, bringing the NBA record to 45-33 (+7.57 units).
Below are three plays I’ll be sweating out, so let’s dive into my NBA prop bets for Saturday, November 29.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Prop Bets for Saturday, November 29
Miles Bridges Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
Charlotte enters this matchup at a disadvantage after playing the Bulls last night and winning 123-116. Conversely, Toronto comes in with two full days of rest.
I’m going to fade Bridges’ production in this spot. He’s averaging 21.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on the year – roughly 33 PRA if we’re being generous and rounding up. That’s still below his prop mark for tonight.
Not only does the number feel a bit too high, but he’s also up against a Raptors defense that ranks third in points allowed per 100 possessions and seventh in effective field goal percentage. Combine that with the rest mismatch, and this shapes up as a difficult matchup for Bridges and the Hornets.
Additionally, 43% of his shots come from beyond the arc, and Toronto ranks second in opponent three-point field goal percentage. The Raptors also sit eighth in opponent assists allowed per game.
Pascal Siakam Under 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)
Let’s take a prop in the matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls. Both teams enter this contest on the second leg of a back-to-back.
The Bulls opened the season as one of the better defenses in the league, particularly against the three. But things have changed, and Chicago has regressed on that end. One area they’ve still excelled in, though, is defending the mid-range. They allow the third-fewest attempts from that area and hold opponents to just 38.4% shooting – the second-best mark in the NBA.
Siakam takes over 50% of his shots from mid-range, and he should struggle against one of the league’s top defenses in that zone. On the boards, his numbers could also take a slight dip given how poor Indiana’s defense has been, which limits the volume of missed shots he’ll have available to clean up.
Terance Mann Under 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114)
This season, Mann is averaging 9 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists – putting him right around a 16 PRA average. Strangely enough, his prop is listed at 18.5. Maybe that’s inflated because Milwaukee’s defense has been weaker, but even then, it’s too high for a player who hasn’t consistently reached that level.
Both teams are playing on no rest, and Mann’s underlying metrics don’t inspire much confidence. He sits in the 43rd percentile in Points per Shot Attempt (114.2) and the 45th percentile in usage rate (15.8%). Don’t overthink this one, sell high on Mann’s prop line this tonight.
Best Bets:
- Miles Bridges Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
- Pascal Siakam Under 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)
- Terance Mann Under 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114)
NBA record: 45-33 (+7.57 units)
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