We’ve made it to December, and with it comes a nine-game NBA slate.
After a 2-1 showing with our plays on Saturday, we’re now 47-34 (+8.52 units) on the year. Let’s look to keep stacking wins with six of my favorite NBA prop bets for Monday, December 1.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Prop Bets for Monday, December 1st
James Harden Under 42.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-114)
I’ve got three prop bets in Monday night’s matchup between the Clippers and the Heat. This meeting takes place in Miami, with Erik Spoelstra’s crew laying -6 and the total set at 235.5.
The Clippers have dropped four of their last five, while the Heat have won four of their past five.
I’m expecting a relatively lower-production night from LA guard James Harden. On the year, the 36-year-old is averaging 27.7 points, 8.7 assists, and 5.9 rebounds. Rounded up, that gives him a combined average of 43 PRA per game – barely above his 42.5 mark tonight – but I still believe he finishes below that number.
Miami’s defense ranks second in effective field goal percentage allowed (51.1%) and third in points per 100 possessions allowed (111.2). They do struggle a bit in opponent rebounding percentage and assists allowed per game, sitting 24th in both categories, but the key here is Harden’s scoring output, which I expect to dip in this matchup.
Harden thrives beyond the arc, and the Heat own the league’s top three-point defense, holding opponents to just 32% from deep.
Harden should still have a solid overall impact, but not enough to clear 42.5 PRA.
Ivica Zubac Under 32.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
I’m also banking on Clippers big man Ivica Zubac to underperform relative to his points, rebounds, and assists prop.
He’s averaging 16.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, which rounds to 31 combined. His rebounding should be his biggest contribution tonight, but given Miami’s defensive toughness and the matchups against Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, I expect his scoring to be limited.
Miami ranks third in opponent field goal percentage from mid-range (40%) and 14th at the rim (66.2%) – the two areas Zubac consistently operates from.
Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 Rebounds (+125)
We’ll back one over in this contest – and that’s with Davion Mitchell’s rebounds. I’m taking the Miami guard to snag at least three boards tonight at a plus-money price of +125.
He’s averaging three rebounds per game, but tends to be volatile in this category. Still, the price on this prop is appealing, especially given his matchup against a Clippers team that ranks 21st in rebound percentage (48.8%). Considering how strong Miami’s defense has been, there should be plenty of missed shots, which should lead to plenty of rebounding opportunities for a player like Mitchell.
Ryan Kalkbrenner Under 7.5 Rebounds (-130)
Let’s move to a matchup in Brooklyn as the Nets host the Charlotte Hornets.
I’m taking Hornets big man Ryan Kalkbrenner to stay under 7.5 rebounds tonight. The rookie is averaging 6.7 rebounds per game this season, and across 13 games in November, that number dipped slightly to 6.5.
He’s stayed below 7.5 rebounds in 13 of 18 games this year. Yes, the Nets are a poor rebounding team, ranking 27th in rebound percentage (47.6%), but this number still feels a bit too high for a player who hasn’t consistently excelled on the glass.
Let’s sell high on Kalkbrenner’s rebounding production this evening.
Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
We’ll take a look at another under on a rebound prop — this time for Rockets big man Alperen Sengun.
He’s stayed under 9.5 rebounds in each of his past four games, averaging just five boards in that span. I don’t necessarily expect his rebounding to remain this low, considering he’s averaging nine per game on the season – but I do want to attack this under while we’re still being offered a valuable number.
If this trend of reduced rebounding continues, we need to capitalize while we can. Utah is also strong on the glass, ranking 10th in rebound percentage (51.3%).
Additionally, Houston is laying around -12.5 in this matchup. If the game turns into a blowout, there’s no reason to push Sengun’s minutes, which would further limit his ability to clear 9.5 rebounds.
Keyonte George Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-137)
Our final prop bet for Monday night keeps us in Salt Lake City for the matchup between the Jazz and Rockets.
Houston’s defense has been outstanding this season, ranking second in Pts/Poss and seventh in eFG% allowed.
Thirty-six percent of George’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, but he’s connecting on just 33% of them. Not only are the Rockets a strong defensive unit overall, but they also defend the three extremely well, ranking eighth in opponent three-point percentage (35%).
George should struggle from deep in tonight’s game.
Best Bets:
- James Harden Under 42.5 PRA (-114)
- Ivica Zubac Under 32.5 PRA (-115)
- Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 Rebounds (+125)
- Ryan Kalkbrenner Under 7.5 Rebounds (-130)
- Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Keyonte George Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-137)
NBA Record: 47-34 (+8.52 units)
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