We’re coming off yet another profitable outing in the NBA, going 4-2 the other night, which brings us to a season record of 57-36 (+16.24 units).
Let’s look to keep the winners rolling. I’ve got four plays lined up for tonight’s slate, so let’s go ahead and dive into my NBA prop bets for Friday, December 5.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Prop Bets for Friday, December 5
Bennedict Mathurin Under 21.5 Points (-122)
Bennedict Mathurin and the Indiana Pacers head to the Windy City to take on a Chicago Bulls team riding a five-game losing streak.
Indiana got the best of Chicago a few days ago, winning 103-101 on Pascal Siakam’s game-winner. Oddsmakers have the Bulls listed as 4.5-point favorites for Friday’s rematch.
In that last meeting, Mathurin logged 38 minutes, shot 42% from the floor, and finished with 19 points. He’s averaging roughly 20 per game this season, so this bump in his points prop feels unwarranted.
Mathurin is posting a 53.5% effective field goal percentage, which puts him in the 46th percentile among his position group. Most of his attempts come at the rim (37%) and from beyond the arc (36%), and the Bulls rank 13th in opponent field goal percentage from both areas.
I expect him to struggle a bit more than usual offensively – at least enough to keep him under 21.5 points. On top of that, I anticipate the Bulls getting their lick back, playing with a little more pride, and stepping up defensively, which should limit the Pacers as a whole and Mathurin directly.
Deni Avdija Under 7.5 Assists (-117)
Let’s turn to Deni Avdija to stay under 7.5 assists for our next prop. We played this same under (-135) the other night and cashed, and I’m comfortable going back to it again.
It’s actually a bit surprising that after Avdija failed to clear this number, the books are now offering better odds on the under – especially with a tougher matchup on deck.
Cleveland’s defense is solid, but Detroit’s is flat-out better. The Pistons rank third in points allowed per 100 possessions and fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage. And, most importantly, Detroit is allowing the fewest assists per game (23.4).
Portland should struggle to generate consistent offense, which directly caps Avdija’s opportunities to facilitate at a high level. I expect another under from him in this spot.
Ace Bailey Under 12.5 Points (-117)
Let’s look at last year’s first-round, fifth-overall pick to stay under 12.5 points in his matchup with the New York Knicks.
The rookie guard is averaging just 10 points per game and now heads to Madison Square Garden on the second leg of a back-to-back. I get why his points prop ticked up – New York’s defense has been underwhelming – but I’m not falling for the trap.
Bailey hasn’t shown consistent scoring ability, and playing at MSG is always a unique environment for first-timers. He owns an eFG% of 53.8%, which places him in the 48th percentile for his position group, along with a 17.3% usage rate and a PSA (points per shot attempt) of 109.4, landing him in the 29th percentile.
He has picked things up recently as a scorer, but this isn’t a spot where I expect that trend to continue – especially with the inflated prop line.
Amen Thompson Under 5.5 Assists (-120)
Let’s target another under on an assist prop and take Amen Thompson to stay below 5.5 assists tonight.
Thompson and the Houston Rockets host the Phoenix Suns on Friday evening. Phoenix comes in off three days of rest, so they should be locked in defensively. Their defense has steadily improved as the season has progressed – the Suns now rank eighth in points per possession allowed and give up just 25.6 assists per game, the 11th-fewest in the NBA.
Amen is averaging 5.3 assists per game on the season. He’s cleared this number in four of his past seven, but I’m banking on the under here.
While Phoenix’s improving defense is certainly a factor in Thompson staying under this mark, I also expect him to attack as a scorer more than usual. Half of his shot attempts come at the rim and 37% come from mid-range – and those happen to be the two areas where the Suns struggle most. Phoenix ranks 22nd in opponent field goal percentage at the rim (68.4%) and 22nd from mid-range (44.1%).
That scoring-friendly profile should encourage Thompson to look for his own offense rather than operate primarily as a facilitator.
Best Bets:
- Bennedict Mathurin Under 21.5 Points (-122)
- Deni Avdija Under 7.5 Assists (-117)
- Ace Bailey Under 12.5 Points (-117)
- Amen Thompson Under 5.5 Assists (-120)
NBA Record: 57-36 (+16.24 units)
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