There are only six games on tonight’s NBA slate, but that’s not going to stop us from finding an edge in the betting market. I’ve got four plays lined up for this evening’s action. Let’s get into them with my NBA bets and props for Tuesday, November 18.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
NBA Bets & Props for Tuesday, November 18
Pistons vs Hawks Under 230.5 (-110)
Let’s begin in the Motor City, where the Detroit Pistons play host to the Atlanta Hawks. I’m taking this game total under 230.5 (-110).
The Pistons’ defense has been one of the bright spots this season, ranking first in effective field goal percentage and second in defensive efficiency. Atlanta isn’t far behind, sitting sixth in defensive efficiency and eighth in eFG%.
These teams haven’t exactly built reputations on defense in recent years, and that’s helping inflate this total to a number we can take advantage of.
They counter each other well stylistically. The Hawks take a majority of their shots from beyond the arc, while Detroit ranks 10th in opponent three-point percentage (35.1%). Meanwhile, the Pistons take 37.2% of their attempts at the rim, and they’ll face an Atlanta defense that’s 11th in opponent FG% at the rim (66.1%).
Detroit also ranks 20th in pace, which should help dictate how often scoring opportunities arise.
This line is already trickling down to 229.5 at several books, so shop around and grab the best number while it’s still there.
Jalen Suggs Under 4.5 Rebounds (-123)
Let’s move into our first of two prop bets for Tuesday night’s slate, where I’m targeting Jalen Suggs to stay under 4.5 rebounds. He’s averaging 3.9 per game and has failed to clear this number in seven of his 10 outings this season.
He draws the Warriors, who rank 20th in rebounding percentage, which is partly why this prop is set a touch higher than it should be. Even with a potentially favorable matchup, I’m still comfortable fading this area of Suggs’ production. He simply hasn’t shown enough rebounding consistency to warrant taking the over. Plus, he’s been battling a groin injury, which may slow him down a bit if he does end up playing tonight.
Ace Bailey Under 12.5 Points (-118)
Let’s move to the later portion of tonight’s festivities and lock in on a player prop from the Lakers–Jazz matchup.
Rookie guard Ace Bailey’s points prop is listed at 12.5, and I’m fading that number. He’s averaging 8.4 points per game and has cleared 12.5 in only two of 13 outings this season. The bump comes from his recent surge, posting 20-plus points in two of his last three games.
Still, he ranks in the 19th percentile among his position group in Points per Shot Attempt (102), and while his shot distribution is fairly balanced, his 48.4% eFG% sits in just the 22nd percentile.
He draws a Lakers team coming off two days of rest and possibly getting LeBron James back in the lineup.
Los Angeles’ defense hasn’t been great this season, but the combination of fresh legs and a potential spark from James’ return should help on that end. More importantly, this is a sell-high spot on an inconsistent rookie scorer.
Suns +2.5 (-105) @ Blazers
Our final play of the night takes us to an 11:00 p.m. ET tipoff between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns. The Blazers opened as 4.5-point favorites, but have since been bet down to -2.5 after early support came in on the Suns.
I still believe there’s value in taking Phoenix at +2.5. The Suns rank sixth in offensive Points per 100 Possessions and eighth in eFG%. Portland sits 22nd in both defensive categories.
Portland is taking 41% of its shots from beyond the arc but ranks just 28th in three-point percentage (33%). Now they face a Suns perimeter defense that’s 10th in opponent three-point FG% allowed (34.8%).
On the other side, Phoenix leans heavily on mid-range scoring, attempting 33.8% of its shots from that area (sixth). That’s a strong matchup against a Blazers defense that’s 26th in opponent mid-range FG% (47.5%) and 22nd in shot rate allowed from that zone.
Even without Grayson Allen and Jalen Green, I still expect the Suns to hold the advantage in this matchup.
Best Bets:
- Pistons vs Hawks Under 230.5 (-110)
- Jalen Suggs Under 4.5 Rebounds (-123)
- Ace Bailey Under 12.5 Points (-118)
- Suns +2.5 (-105) @ Blazers
NBA Record: 31-23 (+5.25)
Still Didn’t Get Your NBA Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NBA News
NBA Betting News
NBA Prop Bets for Saturday, December 13 | Betting News
NBA Betting News
Tonight’s Best Player Props in the Association | NBA (12/10)
NBA Betting News
NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, December 11
NBA Betting News
Tonight’s Best Player Props in the Association | NBA (12/10)
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER