It’s time to dish out more prop bets on the hardwood! We’ve got a six-game slate across the association, and I’ve got four plays I’m targeting tonight.
We’re coming off another positive night on Monday (2-1, +0.66), which brings us to an overall record of 30-20 (+7.62 units). Let’s look to keep it rolling with my NBA best prop bets for Tuesday, November 11.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Best Prop Bets for Tuesday, November 11
Steph Curry Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-124)
Steph Curry is off to another strong offensive start this season, averaging 27 points per game while adding roughly five assists and four rebounds per contest.
Normally, I avoid looking to fade Curry. However, tonight’s matchup against the reigning champions presents an exception.
Oklahoma City has picked up exactly where it left off after winning the title last year. The Thunder currently own the league’s top defense and rank second in defensive efficiency. Their length and rotational discipline make life difficult for opposing perimeter scorers, especially those who rely heavily on off-ball movement like Curry.
I still expect Curry to produce, but his opportunities should be more limited. And more importantly, the Warriors’ supporting cast is likely to struggle creating advantages against this defense, which should cap Curry’s assist numbers as well.
So, I’m looking for a slight underperformance from the two-time MVP tonight. I’ll take Curry to stay under 33.5 points, rebounds and assists.
Ziaire Williams Over 9.5 Pts (-105)
Let’s put some stock into the Brooklyn Nets’ 24-year-old forward tonight. Williams is averaging 10 points per game on the season, and he’s cleared 9.5 points in half of his appearances so far. What stands out is the notable jump in playing time – from 18.3 minutes per game in October to 22.6 in November.
He’s taking 72% of his shots from beyond the arc and knocking down 36% of them. Toronto has actually defended the three-point line fairly well, but I still expect Williams to knock down a couple of looks and find additional scoring opportunities against a defense that, overall, has been below average.
In his five games this month – the same stretch where the minutes have increased – Williams has scored 13 or more points in three of those outings. With his role trending upward and the volume following, I’ll look for another double-digit scoring effort tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 Points (+100)
Without Walker Kessler, the expectation was for veteran center Jusuf Nurkic to step in and absorb as much of that lost frontcourt production as possible.
But the reality is that the 31-year-old Nurkic simply isn’t the same player he once was. He’s averaging just 6.8 points per game this season, and even with the increased minutes since Kessler went down, the scoring hasn’t followed. In fact, during the five games without Kessler, Nurkic is averaging fewer points (5.8) than he was before the injury.
On top of that, the Pacers defense isn’t nearly as poor as the reputation suggests. They rank 9th in effective field goal percentage allowed and sit 16th in points per 100 possessions. They’re not elite, but they’re certainly not a matchup you blindly target for scoring props.
Given Nurkic’s declining offensive production and an Indiana defense that’s at least respectable, this number feels inflated. The market just hasn’t adjusted to what he’s actually giving them on the floor.
Jamal Murray Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-132)
Originally, when handicapping Jamal Murray’s props for tonight, I was leaning toward playing his points over. But once I looked deeper, the number felt about right, and I didn’t see enough of an edge to justify backing the over.
The matchup itself is favorable, though. Sacramento ranks 29th in opponent field goal percentage from mid-range (49.1%) and 24th in opponent shot rate from that area (32.9%). Murray takes 41% of his attempts from mid-range, so this is a spot where he should be able to play to one of his strengths.
Because of that, I’m expecting Murray to lean more heavily into that part of the floor rather than hunting looks from beyond the arc. It’s not that I expect him to struggle or be inefficient – it’s more about where the bulk of his attempts are likely to come from. Given the matchup, I’d anticipate more work inside the arc and fewer perimeter opportunities as a result.
Best Bets:
- Steph Curry Under 33.5 PRA (-124)
- Ziaire Williams Over 9.5 Points (-105)
- Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 Points (+100)
- Jamal Murray Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-132)
NBA Record: 30-20 (+7.62 units)
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