How about a 10-game slate in the NBA to look forward to this Wednesday evening? There’s plenty of action on the hardwood, and I’ve got numerous bets to share throughout the games.
Let’s explore some of my favorite plays with my NBA best bets and player props for Wednesday, October 29.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
NBA Best Bets & Player Props for Wednesday, October 29
Austin Reaves Under 43.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-114)
The 27-year-old Lakers guard has been on a heater the past two games. He dropped 51 points in Sacramento on Sunday and followed it up with 41 the next night against Portland.
With Luka Doncic and LeBron James sidelined in those outings – and expected to be out again tonight – the assumption is that Reaves will keep firing and cruise past 40+ once more. I’m not buying it.
Los Angeles heads to Minnesota to face a poised Timberwolves squad. Yes, the Wolves’ defense hasn’t looked like the dominant unit we’ve been used to – they rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 23rd in defensive effective field goal percentage through four games. However, they have done a solid job limiting attempts from the mid-range and beyond the arc, the exact areas where Reaves does most of his damage. Minnesota ranks 12th in opponent shot attempts allowed from those zones.
The T-Wolves will be without Anthony Edwards, but they still have enough depth and discipline to scheme Reaves out of his comfort zone. Without Doncic and James, the Lakers’ offense becomes far more one-dimensional, making it easier for Minnesota to force the ball out of Reaves’ hands.
Expect his scoring, and overall production, to taper off. I’m taking Austin Reaves under 43.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
Dyson Daniels Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-103)
After winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, many expected Dyson Daniels to build on that success and continue trending upward. Through four games, though, that hasn’t happened.
He’s currently averaging just 5 points, 6 rebounds and 2.3 assists – well below last season’s marks of 14 points, 6 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game.
Tonight’s matchup with the Nets gives him a prime opportunity to get back on track.
Brooklyn has been a mess defensively to start the season, ranking dead last in both points allowed per 100 possessions and defensive effective field goal percentage. Daniels thrives near the rim – 46% of his attempts have come there – and the Nets are giving up the 28th-most shots at the rim while allowing opponents to convert at a 70.4% clip (19th).
On top of that, Brooklyn is surrendering the second-most assists per game (29.5) and ranks 27th in rebounding percentage.
Look for Daniels to find his mojo against the Nets tonight, leading him to eclipse his PRA prop of 19.5.
Deni Avdija Under 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-109)
I’ve got two plays in this matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz, but let’s start with a player prop.
Deni Avdija has been excellent to open the season, averaging 23.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4 assists per game. But this matchup sets up to be a tougher one for him, which increases the likelihood of him staying under his points, rebounds, and assists prop this evening.
TUtah has been elite at protecting the paint – they rank No. 1 in opponent shot attempts allowed at the rim (17.9%). That’s crucial because 44% of Avdija’s shots come from that area. The Jazz also boast the second-best rebounding percentage in the NBA and feature a strong frontcourt rotation that can limit his opportunities off the glass.
Avdija’s a talented and aggressive scorer, but this particular matchup looks like one where his overall production should cool off.
Utah Jazz +3.5 (-110)
I’m struggling to understand why the spread is favoring the Blazers in this spot. Portland travels to Salt Lake City with a 2-2 record, while Utah sits at 2-1. The Jazz are coming off a 138-134 overtime win against Phoenix, narrowly lost 105-104 at Sacramento the game prior, and beat the Clippers to start their season, 129-108. Utah is a feisty, scrappy bunch and should be a tough out for every opponent this season.
On the injury front, Portland looks more impacted. Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Robert Williams are expected to be out, while Matisse Thybulle is questionable. The Jazz will be without Isaiah Collier and Georges Niang, with Jusuf Nurkic questionable.
Even from a statistical viewpoint, this spread doesn’t make much sense to me. Offensively, the Jazz rank fourth in points per 100 possessions and 14th in effective field goal percentage. Defensively, Portland is sixth in points per 100 possessions allowed – but 24th in defensive eFG%.
Now flip it: the Blazers are 17th in offensive points per possession and 25th in eFG%, while Utah’s defense ranks seventh in points per possession allowed and 10th in defensive eFG%.
If this spread was closer to a pick’em, then I’d get it – but that’s not the case. I’ll take +3.5 with the home underdog, expecting the Jazz to win this game outright.
Best Bets:
- Austin Reaves Under 43.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-114)
- Dyson Daniels Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-103)
- Deni Avdija Under 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-109)
- Utah Jazz +3.5 (-110)
NBA record: 12-7 (+4.32 units)
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