Few of the pre-tournament favorites remain in the mix at Eurobasket 2025, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece are three wins from the country’s first title in two decades. To set up a semifinal showdown with either Turkey, Greece must avoid the upset vs. a tough Lithuania squad in tonight’s quarterfinal matchup at Xiaomi Arena in Riga, Latvia.
Greece has not won the tournament since 2005 and has not medaled at Eurobasket since claiming third place in 2009. But they will be assured of a shot at a medal with a victory over Lithuania, who is looking to win the tournament for the first time since 2003 and medal for the first time since a runner-up finish in 2015.
Fellow pre-tournament favorites France, Serbia, and Spain have already been sent packing, but Greece has handled business other than an upset loss (sans Giannis, who sat out) to Bosnia & Herzegovina in group play.
Lithuania also has only one blemish in the tournament, a group loss to Germany. They are riding high entering the quarterfinals after Saturday’s round of 16 win over rivals Latvia, who were aiming to make a run on home soil.
Who will book the second ticket to the quarterfinals? Read on for our Lithuania vs. Greece basketball prediction and picks and get the best value odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.
Lithuania vs. Greece Basketball Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | -7 (-106) | -265 | Over 163.5 (-110) |
| Greece | +7 (-114) | +219 | Under 163.5 (-110) |
Lithuania vs. Greece Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Lithuania to win
There is no equal for Giannis on Lithuania’s squad, whose only NBA representative is veteran center Jonas Valanciunas, who was traded to the Denver Nuggets in July.
But Lithuania has the collective strength to hold its own vs. Greece and counter a team that is heavily dependent on the presence and performances of one player. That’s exactly what they did against Latvia on Saturday, countering the exploits of Kristaps Porzingis (34 points, 19 rebounds) to advance.
Arnas Velicka, Deividas Sirvydis, and Azuolas Tubelis all came up big for Lithuania in the victory, with Valanciunas and Marek Blazevic also providing vital contributions.
Throughout the tournament, Lithuania has done well to get those collective contributions offensively. And other than a 107-88 loss to Germany, they have been a solid unit on the defensive end as well.
Through six games, Germany, who shot 54.3% (19 for 35) from three and 52% from the field, is the only opponent to shot 45% or better against Lithuania. And in their other five games, opponents have connected on only 27.5% (39 for 142) from three.
Even with Giannis going off for 37 points, Greece struggled to put significant distance between themselves and Israel in Sunday’s 84-79 win because they couldn’t buy a bucket from the perimeter. They entered the game shooting a blistering 45.6% from three but connected on only four of 25 three-point attempts against Israel.
Giannis is going to get his again, but I think Lithuania has the defensive aptitude to keep anyone else from beating them. That will key the upset and see yet another favorite go home short of the medal rounds.
Lithuania vs. Greece Picks
1) Lithuania +7 (-114 at BetOnline)
Even if they are unable to pull the upset, I expect Lithuania to keep it close. At other books, this number is +6.5, so getting the +7 is fantastic.
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points (-143 at Lucky Rebel)
There’s some juice to contend with here, but that is because it is so likely to hit. He may not score 37 like he did against Israel, but he will hit 31+ points for the third time this tournament.
3) Arnas Velicka over 6.5 assists (-135 at Bovada) & 4) over 11.5 points (+105 at Bovada)
Until suffering a serious knee injury in a win over Finland eight days ago, Rokus Jokubaitis had starred as Lithuania’s point guard, averaging 17.3 points per game and 8.5 assists per game.
With Jokubaitis going down, Velicka has taken over as the lead guard for Lithuania and has missed nary a step. In the group finale against Sweden, he had 14 points and seven assists, then stood out against Latvia with 21 points, 11 assists, and five rebounds.
The way he has stepped up is an example of Lithuania’s collective strength and part of why I think an upset is in the cards tonight. Whatever the result, Velicka will be at the center of it for Lithuania vs. Greece.
