Ice Trae vs. Paolo. The Villain vs. The Franchise. The Atlanta Hawks travel to Florida to play the Orlando Magic for the 7 vs. 8 SoFi NBA Play-In game. These two divisional foes are both vying for the chance to make it to the NBA Playoffs and take on the defending champion Boston Celtics. Let’s talk hoops.
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Game Information
- Kia Center Orlando, FL
- Atlanta Hawks (40-42) visit the Orlando Magic (41-41)
- Previous Matchup: ATL 117-105 April 13th, 2025
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*Shivers*
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic
The southeast divisional rivals finished just separated by just one game after splitting their season series at two games a piece. Additionally, each team stole a game on another’s home floor. This should be a hotly contested matchup with young All-Stars on either side. The largest margin of victory in their four matchups this season was 12. Two games ended in two possession games.
Quinn Snyder’s Atlanta Hawks won three games to close out the season including their final game over this very same Orlando Magic. None of the stars played in that one but ATL was propelled to victory by a Keaton Wallace triple double.
The Magic’s season was nearly derailed by the injuries to their star wings. Fortunately, both have since returned and have played at a relatively high level. Unfortunately, opposing coaching staffs have figured out how to beat the Magic. They simply don’t have enough shooting to space the floor and score at the pace it takes to be elite. Head Coach Jamahl Mosley did have his team better down the stretch. They finished with just three losses in their last ten including the loss to ATL in the regular season finale.
Read out our Championship odds piece!
NBA Game Analysis
The visitors finished the season 2 games under .500 and three games under the mark on the road. Furthermore, the Hawks are just 4-12 straight up in their last 16 basketball games as a underdog.
The Magic are also 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread in their last 16 games. Mosley has also crafted the number one scoring defence in the association. They also have all the hallmarks of a elite defence. They limit 2nd chance points, stop the break, control the pace, and are tied for first in opponent assist-to-turnover ration. The Magic aren’t a heavy favourite but there are many reasons why they’re the favourite.
However, the Hawks have a path to victory here. It is likely be paved by two players. The Lollipop Man and The Great Barrier Thief. Australia’s Dyson Daniels had one of the best defensive campaigns of recent memory. He lead the league in steals by a incredibly wide margin. Trae Young was also very good this year as he lead the league in assists. Moreover, he was better on the road this year.
Ice Trae Home and Away!
- Home: 37 GP / 36.2 Min / 23.2 PTS / 3.5 REB / 11.2 AST / 1.2 STL / 39.8 FG% / 2.6 3PM
- Road: 39 GP / 35.9 Min / 25.2 PTS / 2.8 REB / 11.9 AST / 1.2 STL / 42.4 FG% / 3.2 3PM
Does Trae Young exclusively receive sustenance from some sort of photosynthesis-like process in which he feeds off the hatred of opposing fanbases? I don’t know. I’m not here to speculate on that.
Also, the Hawks love to get out into the break (6th / 17.2 ppg) and score in the paint well (3rd / 55.1 ppg) . These are two things Orlando defends well against. Daniels and Young need to push the pace and turn this one into a scoring contest to either open up the paint or create space for beyond the arc. Snyder likely knows this is a approach that works for his club as the over hit in 9 of the Atlanta Hawks last 12 games on the road.
That might sound stupid when the other teams has two stars to your lone but ATL has the Australian menace too. The Aussie is good at deploying the strategy. Dyson Daniels has exceeded 2.5 assists in 19 straight games on the road (5.5 assists/game average). He’s a very good outlet passer or swinging it off a bail out.
The Franchise.
Do the Magic have Enough Offence?
The Magic might not be able to score enough to keep up with ATL if they get hot.
Defence may win championships but you still have to score. No matter how slow the pace becomes, or how few points their opponents score, Orlando still needs to put up points. They are the 28th ranked scoring offence as well as the bottom ranked three point shooting team in terms of percentage. They’re also 24th at scoring in the paint and 25th at scoring on the break.
This offence is somehow terrible despite having two scorers that looked like All-Stars at different points this season. Both Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero stuffed the stat sheet before and after their injuries. In conclusion, they’ll need them both to dominate in this one for a chance to move on. In three games versus the Hawks Paolo is averaging 33.3 ppg. Franz has also played in three contests and averaged 28.0 ppg.
Paolo Banchero since the All-Star break:
29.0 PTS
7.8 REB
4.5 AST
47% FG
78% FT on 9.2 attempts per game pic.twitter.com/pbDwrHFJVR— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) April 14, 2025
Check out our Championship odds piece!
NBA Best Bet: Atlanta Hawks +5 (-105)
Trae Young took the Atlanta Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. He has more confidence than almost anyone in the NBA. I’m just not a believer in the Magic who rely on Jalen Suggs are their most plentiful three point shooter. The Magic are Paolo 40 points bomb or KCP four threes away from covering. I just don’t think they do that. This is the stage Trae Young was born for. The Hawks have a good coach, a star, and several veterans. My gut says they win this game but I’ve been wrong a lot in my life so I’m taking the spread.
Trae Young’s second half performance against the Cavs in the 2022 play-in, willing the Hawks to the playoffs pic.twitter.com/wuxvFZPwuf https://t.co/mgOttd8Bp2
— Jake (@SuperiorNBA) April 4, 2025
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