After an exciting two and a half weeks of basketball in Cyprus, Finland, Poland, and Latvia, only two games remain before the curtain closes on EuroBasket 2025. Greece vs. Finland, the bronze medal matchup, begins the last day of action at Xiaomi Arena in Riga, Latvia.
After suffering the disappointment of missing out on the opportunity to go for gold, Greece and Finland must dust themselves off for 40 more meaningful minutes of basketball.
And they are indeed meaningful for both sides, even if bronze doesn’t shine as brightly as gold.
Greece’s last medal at EuroBasket was in 2009, when Sofoklis “Baby Shaq” Schortsanitis led them over Slovenia for the bronze, the most recent of their five EuroBasket medals.
For Finland, a victory vs. Greece would be historic. Reaching the semifinals secured the country’s best all-time EuroBasket result, and a win would deliver a first-ever EuroBasket medal.
So, even though they may watch Turkey vs. Germany and ponder what could have been, there is much more than mere pride at stake for both Greece and Finland.
Which team will procure a place on the podium in Riga? Read on for our Greece vs. Finland prediction and picks. Also, get the best value betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Greece vs. Finland Basketball Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | -5 (-115) | -210 | Over 172 (-115) |
| Finland | +5 (-105) | +180 | Under 172 (-105) |
Greece vs. Finland Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Greece to win
Perhaps I was a bit more optimistic about Greece than I should have been for the semifinals, as I felt that the presence of Giannis could override Greece’s overall disadvantage in quality vs. Turkey.
However, Ercan Osmani and Turkey came out punching from the opening bell and didn’t stop in a 94-68 rout. Giannis recorded a double-double, but by the time he had, the game was long decided. Also, 12 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists is far short of what would have been needed for his numbers to matter.
There aren’t many times in the NBA or in international games that you will see Giannis be rendered a non-factor like he was against Turkey.
That alone makes it unlikely that we’ll see a repeat against Finland, who also didn’t get its best game from its best player in the semifinals but put in a better performance as a unit vs. Germany than Greece did against Turkey.
Still, the end result was a 98-86 loss that was largely not close after the first quarter. But Finland immensely exceeded expectations in even reaching that point that you can’t really see their performance in the same light as Greece’s.
Indeed, one can wonder how Finland would have fared had Lauri Markkanen (16 points, 6 of 17 FG, 2 of 9 3PT, 2 of 3 FT, eight rebounds, -24 +/- in 27:38 of court time) matched his tournament numbers or come close. But as good as Germany is, it likely would not have mattered anyway.
So, which team will pull through for bronze? The temptation is to take Finland because of what they have showed as a team, but ultimately angry Giannis is likely going to go off and guide Greece to bronze.
Greece vs. Finland Picks
1) Finland Team Total Over 82.5 (-114 at Everygame)
When it comes to third-place games, whether for soccer competitions such as the FIFA World Cup or basketball competitions, I will often take the over.
EuroBasket bronze games are a bit of an exception to that, however. In the first eight editions of the tournament since knockout rounds became a permanent fixture (starting with EuroBasket 1977), 170+ points were scored in the bronze matchup.
In the last 14 editions of the tournament, that has happened just three times (Russia 97-77 Greece in 1997, Spain 99-90 Germany in 2001, and Spain 93-85 Russia in 2017).
What is the likely outcome for Greece vs. Finland? Finland’s presence makes a higher-scoring game more likely. Even with a historic medal at stake, it’s difficult seeing them be much different at either end of the court.
There’s a little spot where Finland can hit its team total (84-83, 85-83, 86-83, 87-83, or 88-83) but lose the game and it still go under the 172. With that little spot in mind, I’m opting to focus on Finland’s team total instead of the game total, as I trust them more to score 83+ points than I do Greece to score almost 90, even if I do think Greece will win.
2) Mikael Jantunen Over 12.5 Points (+121 at Lucky Rebel)
I would have loved this more at 11.5, but I’m still happy to grab it at 12.5, given the odds.
Jantunen has landed at exactly a dozen points twice in this tournament, while he’s gone over 12.5 three times.
The key for this prop (and one of the keys for Finland vs. Greece) will be if his threes are falling. Jantunen connected on only one of four in the semis and finished with a dozen points.
For the tournament, he is averaging 8.4 field goal attempts and 4.3 three-point attempts and shooting 52.2% from the field and 44.1% from three. He might cut it close, but at +121, it’s worth the risk.
3) Miro Little Over 4.5 Assists (-135 at Bovada)
This was available for some rather delicious plus odds vs. Germany, but I passed on recommending it in favor of Markkanen’s steals prop. In the end, Markkanen didn’t have a single steal, and Little dished out five dimes.
In the knockout rounds, Little has had six (vs. Serbia), nine (vs. Georgia), and five assists while playing 28, 22, and 22 minutes. It’s a shame the odds aren’t as good as they were on Friday, but it’s still worth it.
4) Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 Points (+100 at Bovada)
Giannis has only two 30+ point games in six Eurobasket 2025 games, but I expect him to bounce back from Friday’s stinker vs. Turkey with a big game against Finland.