Someone is going to celebrate a rare achievement when the final buzzer sounds in tonight’s Greece vs. Turkey Eurobasket 2025 semifinal matchup in Riga, Latvia.
All potential Eurobasket 2025 finalists and medalists are in an unfamiliar spot. In the Germany vs. Finland matchup, Germany has won the tournament only once (in 1993) and has not been to the final since 2007, while Finland is in the semifinals for the first time ever.
In this Greece vs. Turkey matchup, Greece’s last Eurobasket final and tournament win came in 2005, with the most recent previous semifinal appearance in 2009. For Turkey, the high point came in 2001, when the country hosted Eurobasket and reached the semifinals and final for the only previous time and finished runner-up to Yugoslavia for its only Eurobasket medal to date.
That was the year before Alperen Sengun was born. Sengun and the Houston Rockets are one of the 2026 NBA title favorites following the acquisition of Kevin Durant, but the 23-year-old center could enter his fifth NBA season with some international hardware.
Sengun is a big part of why Turkey is poised for a medal. He enters the semis seventh in scoring (21.6 PPG) and second in rebounding (10.6 RPG) and assists (7.1 APG) and posted a triple-double (19 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) to help send Poland packing in the quarters.
For that to potentially be a gold medal, he and Turkey must go through Greece and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is the tournament’s second-leading scorer at 29.8 PPG and had a game-high 29 points in Greece’s quarterfinal win over Lithuania.
Which of these NBA stars will be in Sunday’s final? Read on for our Greece vs. Turkey prediction and picks and get the best value odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.
Greece vs. Turkey Basketball Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | -1.5 (+100) | -118 | Over 162.5 (-115) |
| Turkey | +1.5 (-120) | -102 | Under 162.5 (-105) |
Greece vs. Turkey Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Greece to win
Both teams had favorable draws in the Round of 16—Israel for Greece and Sweden for Turkey—and quarterfinals, but have a tough 40 minutes (or even more, perhaps) on their hands to reach the final.
Overall, there seems to be little to separate the two teams, hence why the spread is as it is. And that makes picking a winner difficult.
As an overall unit, Turkey has the edge vs. Greece. Beyond Sengun, three other players (Cedi Osman, Shane Larkin, and Ercan Osmani) are averaging 10+ PPG, and three others (Furkan Korkmaz, Sehmus Hazer, and Kenan Sipahi) are averaging at least 6.4 PPG.
All of Turkey’s top seven scorers reached double figures against Poland, showcasing the squad’s overall depth. Against Poland, they shot 42.3% from three and 47.6% from the field overall, which actually brought down their tournament percentages (now 44.6% from three and 52.4% from the field).
Greece depth doesn’t quite match that, but Giannis is the great equalizer and scale-tipper. He is both the drink and the straw that stirs it.
The international game is a much different animal than the NBA, and team strength outweighs individual ability in terms of importance. But it’s hard not to ride with the best player left in the tournament here.
Greece vs. Turkey Picks
1) Greece ML (-114 at Everygame)
It should be a close game throughout, and it might take Giannis’s best performance of the tournament, but I’m riding with Greece to get to go for gold on Sunday.
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Giannis’s high for points in a Eurobasket game is 41, which he scored against Ukraine in group play at Eurobasket 2022. There’s a real chance he might have to exceed that today, and given that he should also contribute his share of boards and dimes, his PRA should hit by a decent bit.
3) Greece/Turkey First Half Over 80.5 Points (-120 at BetOnline)
Including the first half of Germany vs. Finland, 81+ points have been scored in nine of the first 13 knockout stage games at Eurobasket 2025.
Both Greece and Turkey are shooting over 50% for the tournament, and while both have not allowed a lot of points often (Turkey has allowed 80+ points only once, while Greece has done so just twice), we may see more misses in the second half, when things might be especially tense and tight.
4) Ercan Osmani Over 1.5 Made Threes (+105 at Bovada)
Sengun’s rebounds, assists, and PRA were all considered for the last pick for Greece vs. Turkey, but this won out in the end.
Despite Osmani hitting multiple threes four times in the tournament, including in both knockout stage games, over 1.5 makes is available at plus odds. He had only five attempts from outside in Turkey’s first three games but has had four, four, five, and four in the last four games.
Given the stakes and his accuracy to date (11 for 22, 50%), it wouldn’t be a surprise if he pops it from the perimeter five or six times today. If the volume is there, the multiple makes should be as well.
