Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets
The second leg of Thursday night’s NBA doubleheader features a showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. Golden State already has one regular-season game in the books after beating the Lakers in Los Angeles on Tuesday night, 119-109.
The Warriors enter this matchup as 2-point favorites after opening around -1. The total has ticked slightly toward the under, dropping from 234.5 to 233.5.
Can Golden State start the season 2-0, or will Denver open its campaign with a statement win? Let’s dive into my Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets predictions and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Insights
Can Nikola Jokic put together another incredible season for the Nuggets?
It’s been two years since the Nuggets won the NBA Championship and three since the Warriors did. Denver got a bit of a pass in 2024 – it’s tough to repeat, especially with the inevitable championship hangover – but last year, there were no excuses. The Nuggets still regressed, finishing worse than they did the season after their title run. They ended the year as the fourth seed at 50-32 and fell to the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference semifinals. The year prior, they were the two-seed at 57-25 before also losing in seven, that time to the Timberwolves.
The biggest roster change this season is Michael Porter Jr. being replaced by Cam Johnson. Otherwise, the starting five remains familiar: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic round out the lineup.
For Golden State, the mild decline hasn’t been much of a surprise. It was expected, given the aging core of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, coupled with limited depth around them. The addition of Jimmy Butler and the continued rise of Brandin Podziemski certainly help, but not enough to make this group a true title contender again. Regardless, tonight’s focus is on this matchup, not the future.
In their win over the Lakers, the Warriors started Curry, Podziemski, Butler, Kuminga, and Green. As usual, their success came from beyond the arc, where they hit 42.5% of their attempts. The defensive side was shakier, as they allowed Los Angeles to convert on more than 54% of its shots, but Golden State still managed to pull away for a double-digit victory.
Last season, the Warriors quietly boasted one of the better defenses in the league, ranking seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions and 15th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Denver, on the other hand, struggled defensively, finishing 21st and 17th in those same categories. Offensively, though, the Nuggets were elite – second in offensive effective field goal percentage and fourth in points per 100 possessions – while the Warriors sat middle of the pack at 20th and 17th.
Golden State vs Denver Picks
We got off to a hot start on opening night, going 2-0 with our best bets. Let’s look to add another with tonight’s play…
The betting market gives us a pretty clear sense of what to expect in this matchup. The Warriors have been getting plenty of support leading up to tip-off, and that’s the side I’m backing as well. And no, it’s not just because of the market movement – though that certainly helps paint the picture – it’s more about the uncertainty surrounding Denver and how this version of their roster will gel early in the season.
Nikola Jokic remains the most efficient player in basketball, but the question is whether he’ll have enough help to break through against a Warriors defense that, despite its flaws on Tuesday night, is still a respectable unit. Add in the fact that Golden State already has an impressive win under its belt, and there’s some real momentum carrying into their home opener tonight.
When it comes to shorter spreads in the NBA, I always feel more comfortable paying a little extra for the security of only needing the team to win outright rather than cover the number. So I’m backing the Warriors on the moneyline at -125.
Best Bet: Warriors Moneyline (-125); Risk 1.25 Units | BetOnline
NBA record: 2-0 (+2.00 Units)
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