All four favored teams advanced in the Eurobasket 2025 quarterfinals, with the closest call coming for Germany against Slovenia on Wednesday. After those results, several notable NBA names are still vying for the trophy as the tournament moves to the semifinals. Today’s first final four face-off pits Franz Wagner, Dennis Schroder, and Germany vs. Lauri Markkanen and upset-minded Finland at Xiaomi Arena in Riga, Latvia.
Germany survived a scintillating and spirited performance by Luka Doncic (39 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists) and Slovenia in a 99-91 win on Wednesday. Germany trailed by as many as 13 in the first half and by nine late in the third quarter, but a 12-0 run changed the game and put the Germans on course for a second straight trip to the Eurobasket semis.
Two years ago, Germany led Spain by seven in the fourth quarter in their semifinal matchup in Berlin, then surrendered a 13-0 run and watched their final hopes fall away.
Germany will be seeking a better result this time around vs. Finland, who is in the Eurobasket semifinals for the first time ever. They reached uncharted waters with a 93-79 win over Georgia, led by Mikael Jantunen’s 19 points. Georgia pulled within six in the fourth after trailing by 20 in the third, but Finland finished strong to close out a historic win.
Can they upset long odds to make even more history? Or will they instead be bounced to a bronze medal meeting with either Greece or Turkey? Read on for our Germany vs. Finland prediction and picks, as well as the best value odds for these Eurobasket best bets from BetOnline or other top online sportsbooks.
Germany vs. Finland Basketball Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | -12.5 (-105) | -750 | Over 179.5 (-110) |
| Finland | +12.5 (-115) | +534 | Under 179.5 (-110) |
Germany vs. Finland Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Germany to win
Germany dug a decent hole against Slovenia, but overall team quality and depth overcame Doncic’s dazzling display.
The first two rounds of the knockout stage have seen Germany take some time to heat up. They had a very substandard first half offensively against Portugal in the Round of 16, then allowed Slovenia to shoot 76% on two-pointers through the first three quarters and score 74 points in those first 30 minutes.
Both times, Germany woke up in time, but they would be unwise to start slowly vs. Finland today.
The two teams met in Tampere, Finland to close group play nine days ago. Germany broke the game open in the second quarter and rolled from there in a 91-61 win.
In that rout, Lauri Markkanen scored a tournament-low 11 points, made just 4 of 15 shots from the field, and missed all five of his three-point attempts.
A repeat of that performance of that from either Markkanen or Finland as a unit is unlikely, especially for the latter.
In the knockout stage, Finland started fast in both games, going up by double digits in the first quarter against Serbia and Georgia.
Finland’s best path to a potential upset is another fast start, which they didn’t do vs. Germany the first time. They never led, were down six within two and a half minutes, and though they made it a two-point game at the end of the first quarter, they were always fighting an uphill battle.
If they can start fast and sustain it, things could remain interesting throughout. However, Germany’s quality and depth have overwhelmed teams time and again in the tournament. Expect that to again be the case in the semis.
Germany vs. Finland Picks
1) Germany/Finland Over 179.5 (-109 at Lucky Rebel)
Germany came up just short of the century mark against Slovenia but enters the Eurobasket semis averaging 101.9 points per game in seven games.
This high total will require more from Finland than in the first matchup but shooting just 19.4% from three and 30.8% overall is likely a one-off, even if Germany is a far superior team.
Also, in that first meeting, Germany scored 91 points despite shooting just 29.0% from three and being too far ahead for late free throws to come into play.
In Wednesday’s win over Slovenia, the over 180 hit with almost two minutes left, so no last-minute sweating was required. If things go like they should, no last-minute sweating will be needed for this over either.
2) Dennis Schroder Over 2.5 Made Threes (+120 at Bovada)
It hasn’t kept Germany from winning or putting up a lot of points, but Schroder has been off the mark from outside in his last few games, making 3 of 22 combined vs. Finland (2 for 6), Portugal (0 for 7), and Slovenia (1 for 9).
Schroder has taken six or more threes in every Eurobasket 2025 game but one thus far. That was the 63-point demolition of Great Britain, in which he took 15 shots but only four from three.
Based on those numbers, he will likely keep firing away today. At some point, they are going to start falling. With that hope and belief in mind, this play is well worth the investment at these odds.
3) Lauri Markkanen Over 2.5 Steals (+150 at Bovada)
In the quarters against Georgia, Markkanen did not record a single steal in his 27 minutes. That was the first time he came up empty in that category at Eurobasket 2025. In his previous six games, he recorded three or more steals four times, including four in the first meeting with Germany.
For Finland to have a chance vs. Germany, Markkanen will need to get involved in every way possible. So, this is also well worth the investment at these outstanding odds.
