The wait is over. The 2025 NBA Finals are upon us. Tonight, Game 1 tips off in Oklahoma City as two small-market franchises compete for their first title.
Can the Indiana Pacers cover +9.5 on the road?
Let’s talk hoops!
Game Information
- Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
- #4 Indiana Pacers visit #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous Matchup: 132-111, March 29, 2025
- Series tied at 0-0
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Shai averaged 39.0 points per game in two contests against Indiana during the regular season.
Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder – NBA Finals Game 1
The Oklahoma City Thunder force you to turn over the ball at an alarming rate. They have several perimeter defenders that could be considered borderline elite. During the regular season, teams couldn’t hold on to the ball, in the postseason and they’ve struggled too. So, it will be no surprise to see the Pacers turn the ball over.
However, the Pacers are incredible at playing fast and taking care of the basketball. They got to the NBA Finals by playing their brand of basketball, whether they’re home or away. There’s no way this team changes it up now. They will live or die by their own pace.
The Indiana Pacers lead the playoffs with 28.1 assists per game, while the Thunder lead the postseason with 10.8 steals per game. Something has to give as the unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Both teams went 12-4 on their way to the NBA Finals.
NBA Finals Game 1 Analysis
The Blue & Gold’s path to victory is to force their style of play. Indiana players lead the league in miles ran per game at 19.3. They also have the highest average player speed. Pacer basketball.
Oklahoma City owns the association’s best defensive rating in the postseason (104.7), so Indiana has to overwhelm, exhaust, and then see what happens. Fortunately, Rick Carlisle’s team is also first in field goal percentage in the postseason. The big point here is, no matter what OKC does, the Pacers have to make them play their style.
The Pacers haven’t been here before, but Pascal Siakam has. He needs to keep his team focused like he has all playoffs. The Thunder are young, they have played with impressive poise, but who is to say being forced to defend Pacer Basketball for 48 minutes won’t break their demeanor? The Pacers have the second best offensive rating in the postseason at 117.7. Trust in that offense, baby!
Hali-Wagon averaged just 11.0 points and 5.5 assists in two games against OKC during the regular season.
Slow it Down, OKC!
The Oklahoma City Thunder were 29-1 against the Eastern Conference during the regular season. They’re the heavy favorites for a reason. Their path to victory is to slow this game down.
Just like the prior series for the Pacers, their opponents have the best player in the series — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be given his runway to operate. The offense will take care of itself. If the Pacers do try and run, then Oklahoma City will be ready. They actually lead the postseason with 17.8 fast break points per game. However, defense wins championships.
The Pacers have made 214 threes on 40.1%. Both marks lead the postseason. Furthermore, they lead in pull-up points per game. The Thunder need to make Indiana’s shooters uncomfortable. During the regular season, OKC kept opponents to just 34.2% (1st) shooting from three. So, they’re capable.
To conclude, don’t play Pacer Basketball if you’re not wearing Blue & Gold. The Cleveland Cavaliers exited the playoffs 4-1 to the Pacers and they still have the best offensive and net rating in the postseason. Everyone has tried and failed to keep pace.
2025 NBA Finals Trends
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The Pacers lost both regular season matchups to the Thunder and Chet Holmgren missed both games. The Pacers don’t have a lot going for them in this series that they can build confidence off. However, they were 21-10 against the West. That is interesting considering it’s the tougher conference and Indiana was 29-22 inside of their own Eastern Conference. Moreover, the Pacers were actually 17-12 (58.6%) straight up as away underdogs this season. They were 18-11 ATS as away underdogs.
The only other team that did more winning as road underdogs was OKC at 66.7%, but they went just 2-1, as they were only road dogs three times all season.
Key Outlier.Bet NBA Insights
- The over hit in 10 of the Indiana Pacers last 14 games on the road. We have talked about this before. The Pacers make you play their game and that’s why we are seeing a high total on the board.
- The Indiana Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
- Tyrese Haliburton has exceeded 31.5 PRA in six of his last seven games on the road.
- Isaiah Hartenstein has exceeded 14.5 PR in 16 of his last 17 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for rebounds allowed. We saw KAT toss Turner around. I-Hart could do the same. The Pacers were 25th in rebounds allowed to the center position.
NBA Finals Game 1 Best Bet: Indiana Pacers +9.5 (-105)
Tail with caution. I think the Pacers cover here. They have a collection of veterans and a coach with a championship pedigree. Pascal has been here before and I think he will have the Blue & Gold ready to ball out. This is going to be a fun NBA Finals!
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