After a wild Round of 12, eight drivers remain in the mix for the NASCAR Cup Series championship. Tomorrow, one of those eight drivers will hope to be the first to secure a spot in the Championship 4 with a victory in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (5:30 p.m. ET, USA).
Among that group of eight drivers are the last four drivers to win a Cup Series title, including Joey Logano, who moved on after a chaotic sequence at the end of last week’s Bank of America Roval 400. Ross Chastain, who gambled on strategy and lost when his slowing car couldn’t maintain a secure position, spun Denny Hamlin out of desperation for the spot and the point he needed to advance, only to take himself out in the process.
As a result, the driver that no one wants to see in the Round of 8 is there, more because of someone else’s choices than his own results, similar to last year, when he made the Round of 8 because Alex Bowman was disqualified after failing post-race inspection at the Charlotte roval.
Last year, Logano entered the Round of 8 last in the standings, and he enters the Round of 8 this year in the same position.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the South Point 400/Round of 8)
- 1. Denny Hamlin – 4036
- 2. Ryan Blaney – 4034
- 3. Kyle Larson – 4032
- 4. William Byron – 4032
- 5. Christopher Bell – 4028
- 6. Chase Elliott – 4018
- 7. Chase Briscoe – 4018
- 8. Joey Logano – 4008
Logano promptly won last year’s South Point 400 to lock himself into the Championship 4 and set himself up to win his second Cup Series title in three seasons and his third overall, mirroring what he did in both 2018 (in the first Round of 8 race at Martinsville) and 2022 (in that year’s South Point 400).
He has yet to make the Championship 4 in an odd-numbered year, but with his cozy relationship with Lady Luck, he will be a popular pick for tomorrow’s race at top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline and Lucky Rebel.
Logano is not the polesitter; that would be Hamlin, who is on pole for the third time in seven playoff races. Logano is also not the race favorite, as he and the two Chases are level with the worst race winner odds among the octet in the championship mix.
Instead, that would be Larson, who will start sixth but owns three career Cup Series wins at Las Vegas, followed by Bell and Hamlin, the winner of the 2021 South Point 400.
South Point 400 Odds
- Kyle Larson +400
- Christopher Bell +500
- Denny Hamlin +550
- Ryan Blaney +800
- William Byron +800
- Chase Briscoe +1200
- Chase Elliott +1200
- Joey Logano +1200
- Tyler Reddick +1600
- Ross Chastain +2000
- Bubba Wallace +2800
- Alex Bowman +3000
- Josh Berry +3300
- Chris Buescher +3500
- Brad Keselowski +4000
- Carson Hocevar +4000
- Austin Cindric +5000
- Kyle Busch +5000
- Ty Gibbs +5000
- Ryan Preece +7500
South Point 400 Predictions and Picks
William Byron to Finish in the Top Five (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
Byron, who will start fifth in the South Point 400, has been relatively quiet thus far in the playoffs, recording one top-five finish and two top-10 finishes and an average finish of 11.2. He has done enough to advance through to the Round of 12 and Round of 8 without a great deal of stress, but he also hasn’t spent a lot of time challenging near the front.
Is there anything to read into that? This has been a weird season for Byron, the regular season champion. Only three of his 10 top-five finishes have come in the last 18 races, and for all of the potential wins he squandered earlier in the season, opportunities to have a potential win to squander have not been there recently.
Is this something to be concerned about? Or are he and his team pulling a Team Penske and saving his best for the races that matter the most? We’re about to find out, but Byron has a nice record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
In his last nine races there, he has a win (in the 2023 early race), four top-five finishes, and seven top-10 finishes. In this year’s early race, he had the best finish among the drivers in the Round of 8, coming in fourth behind winner Josh Berry, runner-up Daniel Suarez, and third-place finisher Ryan Preece.
Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Three (+150 at Bovada)
Larson has not been as quiet as Byron has been in the playoffs, but his runner-up finish in last week’s race was his first top-five of the playoffs.
He did have improved results in the Round of 12, coming in seventh (Mobil 1 301), sixth (Hollywood Casino 400), and second (Bank of America Roval 400) after finishing 19th, 12th, and 32nd in the Round of 16.
And he is a worthy favorite for the South Point 400, even if he isn’t the polesitter. In addition to his three wins there, he has eight top-five finishes and a dozen top-10 finishes in 18 career Cup Series starts at the track. With what he has done there with both Ganassi and Hendrick cars and his current form heading in the right direction, it’s hard to not drop at least a couple of units on this one.
Ross Chastain to Finish in the Top 10 (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
Chastain might have lost a lot of sleep this week ahead of the South Point 400. There is a lot to unpack about how he missed out on the Round of 8. His couldn’t hang in the end because his car didn’t have it, but he overshot his pit when he went on after Stage 1, and he had to serve a penalty for speeding after his last stop.
Those two crucial mistakes arguably weigh heavier than how things played out at the end, though there is an argument to be made regarding the timing of his stops, as it forced him into what proved to be unsuccessful defense.
He would have lost even more sleep given his success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In seven races there since joining Trackhouse Racing, Chastain has five top-five finishes and six top-10 finishes and an average finish of 5.4. In the last three editions of the South Point 400, he has finished second, fifth, and seventh.
He will start 15th in the race, but he finished fifth in the early race this year after starting 19th, so don’t let that put you off of taking him to finish in the top 10 or even the top five (+375 at Lucky Rebel).
Other NASCAR Betting Content
Did you enjoy these South Point 400 picks? Throughout the season, you can find predictions, picks, and expert NASCAR betting insight for many Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series races, as well as updates on the latest championship odds.
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In addition to our dedicated betting guide, several of our sports betting guides are useful for wagering on NASCAR odds. That includes our guide to golf finishing position bets, which are similar in scope and approach to NASCAR finishing position bets.