Since the NASCAR Next Gen car hit the track in 2022, the business end of the season has been all about Team Penske. Are we headed for a fourth consecutive Penske title? Things are starting to point that direction as the Round of 12 starts with today’s Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2:00 p.m. ET, USA).
In a chaotic Round of 16, only one driver, Chase Briscoe, finished all three races in the top ten, as he won the Southern 500 at Darlington, came in second behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin in the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway, and finished ninth in last weekend’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol.
Only two other drives managed two top-five finishes, as Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, the series’ two most recent champions, finished fourth and fifth at both Gateway and Bristol.
Is that a sign that it’s Penske time? Much to the chagrin of the rest of the field (especially after another so-so regular season for Logano), it just might be, and the groans would have gotten even louder after Logano and Blaney claimed the front two spots in the Mobil 1 301 starting lineup.
Logano needs to make the most of this solid start to the weekend more so than Blaney. While Blaney enters the Round of 12 in fifth, seven points behind points leader Denny Hamlin and 19 clear of the wrong side of the cutline, Logano is 11th, tied on points with Ross Chastain and two points behind eighth-placed Bubba Wallace.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the Mobil 1 301)
- 1. Denny Hamlin – 3034
- 2. Kyle Larson – 3032
- 3. William Byron – 3032
- 4. Christopher Bell – 3028
- 5. Ryan Blaney – 3027
- 6. Chase Briscoe – 3018
- 7. Chase Elliott – 3013
- 8. Bubba Wallace – 3009
- 9. Austin Cindric – 3008
- 10. Ross Chastan – 3007
- 11. Joey Logano – 3007
- 12. Tyler Reddick – 3006
Unsurprisingly, Blaney and Logano occupy the top two spots in Mobil 1 301 odds in addition to the front row of the field. They are followed by Hamlin, Bass Pro Shops Night Race winner Bell, and regular season champion Byron, who has finished outside of the top 10 in his last five races.
Mobil 1 301 Odds
- Ryan Blaney +230
- Joey Logano +500
- Denny Hamlin +650
- William Byron +700
- Christopher Bell +750
- Kyle Larson +1200
- Tyler Reddick +1200
- Josh Berry +1400
- Chase Briscoe +1600
- Bubba Wallace +1800
- Alex Bowman +1800
- Carson Hocevar +1800
- Ross Chastain +2000
- Ty Gibbs +2200
- Brad Keselowski +2500
- Chris Buescher +2500
- Chase Elliott +3000
- Austin Cindric +4000
- Kyle Busch +6000
- Ryan Preece +6000
Mobil 1 301 Predictions and Picks
Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+175 at Lucky Rebel)
Larson had a forgettable Round of 16, finishing 19th at Darlington, 12th at Gateway, and 32nd at Bristol. But he advanced with no drama, and he starts the Round of 12 still with a decent cushion for a Round of 8 spot.
He will start 18th in today’s race, but if you have a chance to take Larson for a top-five at this point of this season at these odds, you take it.
And it is not just the opportunity that is appealing here. He is consecutive top fives at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, coming in third and 2023 and fourth in 2024. Also, since he joined Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, every instance in which he finished outside of the top ten in three races ended with a top-five finish.
- 2021: 18th (Richmond), 40th (Talladega), 19th (Kansas), 2nd (Darlington)
- 2022: 34th (Phoenix), 30th (Atlanta), 29th (Circuit of the Americas), 5th (Richmond)
- 2022: 18th (Talladega, 36th (Charlotte roval), 35th (Las Vegas), 1st (Homestead)
- 2023: 31st (Texas), 15th (Talladega), 13th (Charlotte roval), 1st (Las Vegas)
- 2025: 17th (Atlanta), 13th (Chicago), 35th (Sonoma), 4th (Dover)
Larson is also +350 for a top-three finish and +300 to be the top Chevrolet driver, which are also both worth a look with this trend in mind.
Ryan Blaney to Finish in the Top Three (+100 at Bovada)
After finishing 18th at Darlington, Blaney rounded out the Round of 16 with consecutive fourth-place finishes at Gateway and Bristol.
Blaney hasn’t finished in the top ten at New Hampshire Motor Speedway since 2021, but that should come to an emphatic end today.
Top-three bets leave minimal margin for error, and taking the driver with the best odds in this spot is not always a good choice, but it is here when we are in prime Penske season and when these odds are much shorter elsewhere.
Joey Logano to Finish in the Top Five (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
Given how everything is lining up for both Penske and the Mobil 1 301 polesitter, these odds seem like an absolute steal. After opening the playoffs with an 18th-place finish at Darlington, he logged back-to-back fifth-place finishes at Gateway and Bristol and will start today’s race at the front of the field.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is where Logano claimed the first of his 37 NASCAR Cup Series wins, and his seventh career win came there in 2014.
He has not won there since, but he is well-positioned to end that drought today. And even if he does not, a top-five finish feels like the floor.
Other NASCAR Betting Content
Did you enjoy these Mobil 1 301 picks? Throughout the season, you can find predictions, picks, and expert NASCAR betting insight for many Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series races, as well as updates on the latest championship odds.
Are you new to betting on NASCAR? Check out our NASCAR betting guide to get your knowledge up to speed before you bet on the upcoming action.
In addition to our dedicated betting guide, several of our sports betting guides are useful for wagering on NASCAR odds. That includes our guide to golf finishing position bets, which are similar in scope and approach to NASCAR finishing position bets.