Last week, the Round of 12 of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs began with Ryan Blaney booking his ticket to the Round of 8 with a victory in the Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This week, we mark the halfway point of the playoffs at Kansas Speedway, the venue for today’s Hollywood Casino 400 (3:00 p.m. ET, USA).
Last week’s race was dominated by Team Penske, as the odds forecast. Polesitter Joey Logano and Blaney started in the front row, and one of the two was at the front for the majority of the race, with Logano leading a race-high 147 laps and Blaney leading 116.
In the end, the 2023 Cup Series champion took the checkered flag ahead of Josh Berry, with regular season champion William Byron crossing the line third for his first top-five finish since Watkins Glen last month.
Blaney is now officially set to make the Round of 8 for the fifth straight season, while Byron and Kyle Larson, who finished seventh last Sunday, lead the best of the rest heading into the Hollywood Casino 400.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the Hollywood Casino 400)
Drivers in bold are above the cutline for the Round of 8. Blaney has already secured his place in the Round of 8 with his Mobil 1 301 victory.
- 1. Ryan Blaney – 3084 (Advanced)
- 2. William Byron – 3082
- 3. Kyle Larson – 3076
- 4. Christopher Bell – 3064
- 5. Denny Hamlin – 3062
- 6. Joey Logano – 3059
- 7. Chase Elliott – 3049
- 8. Chase Briscoe – 3047
- 9. Ross Chastain – 3035
- 10. Austin Cindric – 3028
- 11. Tyler Reddick – 3024
- 12. Bubba Wallace – 3020
Despite finishing tenth in Loudon and continuing his run of being the only playoff driver to finish in the top 10 in every playoff race thus far, Briscoe is not in a secure place with two Round of 12 races remaining. That is due to a lack of stage wins and bonus points relative to the likes of Blaney, Byron, Larson, Bell, and series wins leader Hamlin.
But after claiming his series-best seventh pole yesterday, Briscoe has a chance to automatically lock himself into the Round of 8, just as he did in the Round of 16 with a Southern 500 win at Darlington.
Briscoe, however, does not sit atop Hollywood Casino 400 odds at top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline. Instead, that would be Larson, who will start third behind the Joe Gibbs Racing duo of Briscoe and Hamlin and on the second row with Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott, another driver in need of a successful Sunday at Kansas Speedway.
2025 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
- Kyle Larson +250
- Denny Hamlin +500
- Christopher Bell +625
- Chase Briscoe +700
- William Byron +850
- Chase Elliott +1100
- Carson Hocevar +1400
- Ryan Blaney +2000
- Bubba Wallace +2000
- Ross Chastain +2200
- Tyler Reddick +2200
- Chris Buescher +2200
- Alex Bowman +2800
- Ty Gibbs +2800
- Brad Keselowski +3300
- Joey Logano +3300
- Erik Jones +3300
- Josh Berry +4000
- Kyle Busch +6000
- Ryan Preece +6000
- A.J. Allmendinger +6000
- John Hunter Nemechek +6000
- Austin Cindric +6600
- Noah Gragson +8000
Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions and Picks
Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Three (+100 at Lucky Rebel)
More of his success at Kansas Speedway has come in the season’s first race there rather than the playoff race, but Larson owns three Cup Series wins at Kansas, all since joining HMS in 2021. In that stretch, he has three wins, six top fives, and seven top-10 finishes in nine races.
Larson has not finished in the top three or top five since the Brickyard 400. Expect that eight-race drought to end in today’s Hollywood Casino 400.
Chase Elliott to Finish in the Top Five (+175 at Bovada)
Elliott won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400, the third of his 20 career Cup Series victories. It is part of a robust resume at Kansas Speedway, where he has seven top-five finishes and a dozen top-10 finishes in 19 career Cup Series starts.
Adding to that portfolio with another positive performance today will help Elliott’s hopes of advancing to the Round of 8. Look for him to come through and remain on the right side of the cutline entering the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte roval—another good track for the 2020 Cup Series champion—next week.
Ross Chastain to Finish in the Top 10 (+105 at Lucky Rebel)
Chastain recorded his first top 10 in this year’s playoffs last week, as he came in ninth in New Hampshire.
At minimum, he likely needs to replicate that result this week to enter next week with a decent shot to stick around for another round, and with Briscoe on pole and a Kansas Speedway being such a good track for Elliott, even a top-10 finish might not be enough to help him gain ground or at least not lose much.
Fortunately, this venue has also been good to Chastain. He won last year’s Hollywood Casino 400 while not in the playoffs, and he has two top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes in seven races at Kansas Speedway in his time with Trackhouse Racing.
Christopher Bell to Finish in the Top 5 (+120 at Bovada)
Larson is my pick to win the Hollywood Casino 400, but Bell is also up there.
Bell, who will start fifth today, does not own a Cup Series win at Kansas Speedway. However, he has run well there throughout his career in the top tier.
In 11 career Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway, he has three top-five finishes and eight top-10 finishes, including a runner-up finish in the spring race this year.
Other NASCAR Betting Content
Did you enjoy these Hollywood Casino 400 picks? Throughout the season, you can find predictions, picks, and expert NASCAR betting insight for many Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series races, as well as updates on the latest championship odds.
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In addition to our dedicated betting guide, several of our sports betting guides are useful for wagering on NASCAR odds. That includes our guide to golf finishing position bets, which are similar in scope and approach to NASCAR finishing position bets.