The Round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs comes to a close tonight with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA).
Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe are locked into the Round of 12 by virtue of their wins in this round, with Kyle Larson and Bubba Wallace leading the drivers who are almost certain to move on. But who will join them in the next round?
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the Bass Pro Shops Night Race)
- Denny Hamlin
- Chase Briscoe
- Kyle Larson +60
- Bubba Wallace +50
- Ryan Blaney +42
- William Byron +39
- Tyler Reddick +37
- Christopher Bell +32
- Chase Elliott +28
- Joey Logano +21
- Ross Chastain +19
- Austin Cindric +11
- Austin Dillon -11
- Shane van Gisbergen -15
- Alex Bowman -35
- Josh Berry -45
A non-playoff driver will start on pole tonight at Bristol, as A.J. Allmendinger topped qualifying ahead of Team Penske drivers Blaney and Cindric.
But it’s 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race and 2025 Bristol spring race winner Kyle Larson who sits atop the race odds, edging out Hamlin and Blaney. Entering the third of the 10 playoff races, that trio also sits atop NASCAR Cup Series championship odds at top online sportsbooks.
For tonight’s race, all of the top six favorites will start in the front five rows, while Briscoe is looking to follow his win at Darlington and runner-up finish at Gateway with another outstanding result at Bristol, where he finished fourth in April.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds
- Kyle Larson +290
- Denny Hamlin +400
- Ryan Blaney +450
- Christopher Bell +900
- Ty Gibbs +1200
- William Byron +1400
- Chase Briscoe +1400
- Chase Elliott +1600
- Bubba Wallace +1800
- Austin Cindric +2200
- Brad Keselowski +2500
- Joey Logano +2500
- Alex Bowman +2500
- J. Allmendinger +2500
- Ross Chastain +3300
- Carson Hocevar +4000
- Josh Berry +4000
- Tyler Reddick +4000
- Chris Buescher +4000
- Kyle Busch +4000
- Ryan Preece +6000
- Austin Dillon +8000
- John Hunter Nemechek +10000
- Erik Jones +10000
- Michael McDowell +10000
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions and Picks
Alex Bowman to Finish in the Top 10 (+150 at Lucky Rebel)
Bowman is bound for elimination unless he wins tonight. I’m backing him to give it the best attempt possible, and even if he can’t win, there’s great value for a strong finish.
The odds are not in his favor, but each of the previous two times this season that Bowman finished outside of the top 10 in three consecutive races, he broke the drought with a top-10.
If you want to go a step further and back him for a top-five finish, that is available for +550 at Lucky Rebel. That is worth a sprinkle as well.
Austin Cindric to Finish in the Top 10 (+100 at Bovada)
It’s possible that just staying out of trouble and in a decent spot in the field will be enough for Cindric to advance to the Round of 12. But he need not take that risk.
He has just five top-10 finishes all season, which is tied for the lowest total among playoff drivers. But failing to make the Round of 12 could be detrimental for his future at Penske, and failing to convert a strong Bass Pro Shops Night Race qualifying run into a good finish would be a disappointment, even if he moves on.
These are good odds given where he will start. Again, playing it safe may well get him through, but in his position, playing it safe may not be the smartest route.
Austin Dillon to finish in the top 10 (+650 at Lucky Rebel)
Dillon enters the Bass Pro Shops Night race still with a chance to make the Round of 12, and if he can combine stage points with a good finish, he may not even need to win the race to move past Cindric, Logano, or Chastain.
Don’t expect him to be satisfied with just getting to the playoffs, even if he was a long shot to do that. He will start 23rd, but he finished 10th at Bristol in the April race and has several good results there in his Cup Series career.
Dillon doesn’t face the same pressure as some of the more high-profile names, so he won’t be as prone to a potential mistake as someone else may be. At these odds, he’s worth backing to pull off an unexpected top 10.
Other NASCAR Betting Content
Did you enjoy these Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks? Throughout the season, you can find predictions, picks, and expert NASCAR betting insight for many Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series races, as well as updates on the latest championship odds.
Are you new to betting on NASCAR? Check out our NASCAR betting guide to get your knowledge up to speed before you bet on the upcoming action.
In addition to our dedicated betting guide, several of our sports betting guides are useful for wagering on NASCAR odds. That includes our guide to golf finishing position bets, which are similar in scope and approach to NASCAR finishing position bets.